{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4e440b6-683a-4392-b1e1-269de8a4a811", "symbol": "00635U", "name": "Yuanta S&P GSCI Gold ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.155, "architecture_energy": 56.864, "architecture_maturity": 56.98, "architecture_confidence": 93.963, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.97, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 10.26, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 52.4, "downward_expansion": 83.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.837332, 42.910363, 44.526571, 46.141526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.349998, "trend_reference": 48.114666, "distance_from_trend": -0.078244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.716667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.160265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205197, "excess_performance": -0.584509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.657552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15317292, "relative_activity": 0.840308, "balance": 0.657552, "dry_up": 0.706819, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039598, "annualized_volatility": 0.277479, "from_high_reference": -0.296032, "from_low_reference": 0.230236 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.114666, "fair_value_reference": 34.716667, "structural_low": 41.369999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006791, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.005875, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.083217, "worst_return": -0.044112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012129, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019963, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.115279, "worst_return": -0.028876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083074, "worst_return": 0.019949, "sufficient": false }, { 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.651482, "energy": 92.07371, "activity_lines": [ 42.421332, 43.57709, 45.646237, 47.200344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.950001, "volume": 13541235, "typical_volume": 20846579.35, "trend": 48.401, "fair_value": 34.473782, "relative_strength": -33.131071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.876612, "energy": 81.941803, "activity_lines": [ 42.111333, 43.076, 45.123476, 46.774537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.439999, "volume": 11815211, "typical_volume": 20185542.5, "trend": 48.200666, "fair_value": 34.588333, "relative_strength": -30.970281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.015317, "energy": 68.38871, "activity_lines": [ 42.173999, 42.774909, 44.70619, 46.389957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.349998, "volume": 15317292, "typical_volume": 18228194.05, "trend": 48.114666, "fair_value": 34.716667, "relative_strength": -29.160265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.155442, "energy": 56.864109, "activity_lines": [ 42.837332, 42.910363, 44.526571, 46.141526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }