{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4e44932-9a52-4fd9-bc77-e4b25e81b38e", "symbol": "MFX", "name": "Manx Financial Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.689, "architecture_energy": 8.275, "architecture_maturity": 30.361, "architecture_confidence": 39.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.29, "rotation_up": 22.2, "upward_expansion": 19.53, "deceleration": 64.46, "rotation_down": 41.1, "downward_expansion": 30.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.247667, 0.251574, 0.251162, 0.249241 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.24, "trend_reference": 0.250086, "distance_from_trend": -0.040329, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.202421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.096079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169846, "excess_performance": -0.221081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.432521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141823, "relative_activity": 0.490082, "balance": 0.432521, "dry_up": 0.532471, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126623, "annualized_volatility": 0.48905, "from_high_reference": -0.367012, "from_low_reference": 0.224477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.250086, "fair_value_reference": 0.202421, "structural_low": 0.196002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.012138, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.696976, "worst_return": -0.203388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.092338, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.055952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.647069, "worst_return": -0.148146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033226, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005265, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.352944, "worst_return": -0.03803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.36266, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.264994, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.453637, "worst_return": -0.098156, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.123919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.101447, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068962, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129628, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107142, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042105, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.196225, "volume": 57142, "typical_volume": 210185.2, "trend": 0.211283, "fair_value": 0.108165, "relative_strength": 13.657081, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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0.26, "volume": 162902, "typical_volume": 323656.9, "trend": 0.253833, "fair_value": 0.200895, "relative_strength": -8.322513, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.296533, "energy": 13.12544, "activity_lines": [ 0.260455, 0.253521, 0.250071, 0.250154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.255, "volume": 183931, "typical_volume": 296205.6, "trend": 0.252533, "fair_value": 0.201301, "relative_strength": -10.970103, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.64365, "energy": 21.437182, "activity_lines": [ 0.260828, 0.253729, 0.251045, 0.250229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.255, "volume": 33411, "typical_volume": 281329.4, "trend": 0.251886, "fair_value": 0.201828, "relative_strength": -11.812389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.188441, "energy": 24.744997, "activity_lines": [ 0.259881, 0.254291, 0.251972, 0.250388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.245, "volume": 257195, "typical_volume": 283766.15, "trend": 0.250906, "fair_value": 0.20214, "relative_strength": -15.754576, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.119695, "energy": 4.272982, "activity_lines": [ 0.253627, 0.253387, 0.251828, 0.249944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.24, "volume": 141823, "typical_volume": 289386.5, "trend": 0.250086, "fair_value": 0.202421, "relative_strength": -17.096079, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.689072, "energy": 8.274931, "activity_lines": [ 0.247667, 0.251574, 0.251162, 0.249241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }