{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4e9af52-c5f8-473a-9110-57dbcd7c3f9e", "symbol": "UAL", "name": "United Airlines Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.885, "architecture_energy": 32.286, "architecture_maturity": 54.727, "architecture_confidence": 93.316, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.43, "rotation_up": 36.14, "upward_expansion": 63.51, "deceleration": 87.67, "rotation_down": 25.74, "downward_expansion": 15.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.983333, 123.643091, 116.537857, 111.544108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 129.56, "trend_reference": 107.594333, "distance_from_trend": 0.204153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.739904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.6883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.447346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.117764, "excess_performance": -0.06969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.204153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.6883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.291833, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.074473, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.892716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16157388, "relative_activity": 0.551748, "balance": 1.892716, "dry_up": 0.719806, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09532, "annualized_volatility": 0.520589, "from_high_reference": -0.066369, "from_low_reference": 0.530677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.594333, "fair_value_reference": 76.739904, "structural_low": 84.6423, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.041457, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.04962, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.124277, "worst_return": -0.251359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037965, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.039513, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24, "worst_return": -0.190224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026831, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.050267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.047883, "worst_return": -0.074168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.252869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", 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66.267658, "activity_lines": [ 124.77, 121.000727, 111.660238, 108.428194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 118.27, "volume": 22698326, "typical_volume": 32474366.95, "trend": 106.909, "fair_value": 75.80234, "relative_strength": 4.202747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.231174, "energy": 41.577335, "activity_lines": [ 122.249333, 121.449455, 112.968857, 109.170258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.33, "volume": 18005632, "typical_volume": 30487867.85, "trend": 107.186333, "fair_value": 76.244391, "relative_strength": 6.030547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.45273, "energy": 28.250146, "activity_lines": [ 120.752, 121.992364, 114.444143, 110.100645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 129.56, "volume": 16157388, "typical_volume": 29283992.75, "trend": 107.594333, "fair_value": 76.739904, "relative_strength": 7.447346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.884609, "energy": 32.286196, "activity_lines": [ 122.983333, 123.643091, 116.537857, 111.544108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }