{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4f4510c-6480-41a1-8e8e-c5c321617c5d", "symbol": "ALGM", "name": "Allegro Microsystems\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.019, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.009, "architecture_energy": 21.159, "architecture_maturity": 34.285, "architecture_confidence": 85.811, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.36, "rotation_up": 15.95, "upward_expansion": 46.81, "deceleration": 93.83, "rotation_down": 42.64, "downward_expansion": 26.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.718, 48.494636, 48.321214, 45.741667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.77, "trend_reference": 42.554333, "distance_from_trend": 0.028567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.288782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.928921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052923, "excess_performance": -0.134531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059289, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20851, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.436365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10395742, "relative_activity": 0.823496, "balance": 0.436365, "dry_up": 0.919542, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.203951, "annualized_volatility": 0.600456, "from_high_reference": -0.390135, "from_low_reference": 0.953137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.554333, "fair_value_reference": 30.288782, "structural_low": 27.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018684, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.002002, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.217939, "worst_return": -0.14483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033572, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020395, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.379193, "worst_return": -0.254454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.088337, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.870913, "worst_return": -0.198716, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.438808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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45.927095, 42.838731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 55.485, "volume": 19912531, "typical_volume": 12114121.95, "trend": 39.428667, "fair_value": 30.284872, "relative_strength": 37.561919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.939079, "energy": 63.834985, "activity_lines": [ 55.545667, 52.333909, 47.193881, 43.931108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 54.87, "volume": 18924682, "typical_volume": 12192923.65, "trend": 40.354, "fair_value": 30.316923, "relative_strength": 33.206657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.534795, "energy": 54.320028, "activity_lines": [ 55.891, 53.146273, 48.33969, 44.927323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.48, "volume": 9002031, "typical_volume": 12156765.25, "trend": 41.013333, "fair_value": 30.297244, "relative_strength": 17.681879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.274855, "energy": 36.472935, "activity_lines": [ 52.874333, 52.326091, 48.610548, 45.322548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.03, "volume": 9099858, "typical_volume": 12123318.05, "trend": 41.652, "fair_value": 30.26641, "relative_strength": 18.131135, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.861778, "energy": 19.935587, "activity_lines": [ 49.969333, 51.469, 48.790881, 45.646204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.5, "volume": 17935271, "typical_volume": 12639161.85, "trend": 42.138333, "fair_value": 30.259936, "relative_strength": 5.792026, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.850748, "energy": 16.464764, "activity_lines": [ 46.419, 49.735, 48.472643, 45.636398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.77, "volume": 10395742, "typical_volume": 12623918.9, "trend": 42.554333, "fair_value": 30.288782, "relative_strength": 5.928921, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.008816, "energy": 21.159044, "activity_lines": [ 44.718, 48.494636, 48.321214, 45.741667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }