{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4f92f08-a4e5-4c9b-8452-6720f955e894", "symbol": "TCOM", "name": "Trip.com Group Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.297, "architecture_energy": 25.873, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.189, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.73, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 16.42, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 26.2, "downward_expansion": 61.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.157333, 44.219091, 45.886952, 47.618043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.14, "trend_reference": 50.530333, "distance_from_trend": -0.086885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.06362, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.028686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223232, "excess_performance": -0.410686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146561, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13670435, "relative_activity": 0.92127, "balance": 0.766694, "dry_up": 1.052183, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06787, "annualized_volatility": 0.316952, "from_high_reference": -0.415875, "from_low_reference": 0.212934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.530333, "fair_value_reference": 54.06362, "structural_low": 38.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.047128, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.03005, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.375132, "worst_return": -0.101105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.129616, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.057533, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.534151, "worst_return": -0.255286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.265473, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.118267, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.56231, "worst_return": -0.023139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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53.913613, "relative_strength": -40.30041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.143627, "energy": 68.909684, "activity_lines": [ 42.489333, 44.324, 47.259619, 49.713634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.45, "volume": 12753485, "typical_volume": 14658187.95, "trend": 53.392333, "fair_value": 53.951462, "relative_strength": -37.578387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.871261, "energy": 69.797705, "activity_lines": [ 42.222, 43.677818, 46.625095, 48.943656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.64, "volume": 13368786, "typical_volume": 14182304.6, "trend": 52.430333, "fair_value": 53.978751, "relative_strength": -34.134778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.875676, "energy": 58.854324, "activity_lines": [ 42.619333, 43.434, 46.152333, 48.314473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.01, "volume": 22659354, "typical_volume": 14603965.1, "trend": 51.514333, "fair_value": 54.026431, "relative_strength": -28.849307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.354595, "energy": 38.011776, "activity_lines": [ 44.237333, 43.911455, 46.049857, 47.964774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.14, "volume": 13670435, "typical_volume": 14838688.6, "trend": 50.530333, "fair_value": 54.06362, "relative_strength": -33.028686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.296638, "energy": 25.87311, "activity_lines": [ 45.157333, 44.219091, 45.886952, 47.618043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }