{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d4fdac3c-9685-4317-924b-b823c32cfa43",
    "symbol": "PCQ",
    "name": "Pimco California Municipal Income Fund",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 83.395,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -13.163,
    "architecture_energy": 18.002,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.658,
    "architecture_confidence": 43.261,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 58.9,
        "rotation_up": 22.69,
        "upward_expansion": 12.43,
        "deceleration": 58.88,
        "rotation_down": 49.5,
        "downward_expansion": 42.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.698268,
        8.756224,
        8.756978,
        8.742773
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 8.78,
    "trend_reference": 8.742861,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.004248,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.441471,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040103,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.106863,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.009991,
    "excess_performance": -0.135616,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004248,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008637,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040103,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010012,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.091069,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024146,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009991,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.347454,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 566153,
      "relative_activity": 0.815206,
      "balance": 1.347454,
      "dry_up": 0.9293,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020654,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.106687,
      "from_high_reference": -0.034313,
      "from_low_reference": 0.120686
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 8.742861,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.441471,
      "structural_low": 8.308006,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.022963,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03908,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.02194,
        "worst_return": -0.108142,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.061795,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.058932,
        "worst_return": -0.189046,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.090792,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.072608,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.072776,
        "worst_return": -0.193261,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.042145,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.150627,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.073347,
        "worst_return": -0.298426,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.050024,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008209,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004244,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0041,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.045016,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.022119,
        "active": true
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      },
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 693120.65,
        "trend": 8.738077,
        "fair_value": 8.440482,
        "relative_strength": -7.634069,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 11.204092,
        "energy": 6.400418,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 8.59,
        "volume": 795780,
        "typical_volume": 695009.7,
        "trend": 8.739743,
        "fair_value": 8.440161,
        "relative_strength": -8.111052,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.062766,
        "energy": 17.37627,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.691436,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.78,
        "volume": 566153,
        "typical_volume": 694490.85,
        "trend": 8.742861,
        "fair_value": 8.441471,
        "relative_strength": -9.106863,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.163014,
        "energy": 18.001954,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}