{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4ff924f-dede-4184-a80b-45b688e7c916", "symbol": "MSI", "name": "MS INTERNATIONAL plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.614, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.036, "architecture_energy": 23.808, "architecture_maturity": 30.945, "architecture_confidence": 56.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.77, "rotation_up": 43.23, "upward_expansion": 57.26, "deceleration": 62.85, "rotation_down": 17.41, "downward_expansion": 14.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1512.0, 1488.818182, 1514.77381, 1484.370824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1600.0, "trend_reference": 1437.247778, "distance_from_trend": 0.113239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1104.61608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.448467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.70145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.180812, "excess_performance": 0.129577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002527, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.448467, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180812, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69468, "relative_activity": 0.699056, "balance": 0.479902, "dry_up": 0.893488, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07262, "annualized_volatility": 0.469624, "from_high_reference": -0.111111, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1437.247778, "fair_value_reference": 1104.61608, "structural_low": 1120.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004951, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.018245, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.233129, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004681, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.237705, "worst_return": -0.093023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.108775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053763, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.370113, "worst_return": 0.024564, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 1500.0, "volume": 162556, "typical_volume": 105358.45, "trend": 1435.74019, "fair_value": 1087.556857, "relative_strength": -0.833659, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.799841, "energy": 11.764968, "activity_lines": [ 1472.333333, 1485.636364, 1507.261905, 1470.622096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1480.0, "volume": 86537, "typical_volume": 101639.55, "trend": 1435.576042, "fair_value": 1093.200444, "relative_strength": -3.446714, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.001198, "energy": 11.652854, "activity_lines": [ 1479.333333, 1478.272727, 1507.654762, 1473.477568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1440.0, "volume": 36597, "typical_volume": 100550.35, "trend": 1435.578483, "fair_value": 1098.395442, "relative_strength": -7.212429, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.245699, "energy": 8.539417, "activity_lines": [ 1471.333333, 1467.0, 1503.761905, 1473.762985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1600.0, "volume": 69468, "typical_volume": 99374.05, "trend": 1437.247778, "fair_value": 1104.61608, "relative_strength": 2.70145, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.036487, "energy": 23.808173, "activity_lines": [ 1512.0, 1488.818182, 1514.77381, 1484.370824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }