{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d50169d8-8448-41d0-8dc2-3a031c41cffc", "symbol": "RCF", "name": "Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.904, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.823, "architecture_energy": 15.382, "architecture_maturity": 15.715, "architecture_confidence": 59.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.49, "rotation_up": 18.42, "upward_expansion": 15.89, "deceleration": 65.92, "rotation_down": 54.76, "downward_expansion": 40.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.928, 128.711271, 128.848666, 127.734949 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 126.919998, "trend_reference": 127.411233, "distance_from_trend": -0.003856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 146.221419, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.268422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038274, "excess_performance": 0.005435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088057, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2712643, "relative_activity": 0.381371, "balance": 1.088057, "dry_up": 0.510233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05308, "annualized_volatility": 0.305656, "from_high_reference": -0.215435, "from_low_reference": 0.197358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.411233, "fair_value_reference": 146.221419, "structural_low": 106.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.021177, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005386, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.290909, "worst_return": -0.282922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047115, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.014797, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.402914, "worst_return": -0.317223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09124, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240841, "worst_return": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.220001, "volume": 2860046, "typical_volume": 12927806.4, "trend": 128.41707, "fair_value": 145.971086, "relative_strength": -4.640693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.66863, "energy": 9.082122, "activity_lines": [ 128.346665, 129.632362, 128.809904, 127.852726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.400002, "volume": 3849019, "typical_volume": 7568094.3, "trend": 127.728466, "fair_value": 146.098097, "relative_strength": -4.435878, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.894851, "energy": 10.507618, "activity_lines": [ 127.543334, 129.184726, 128.866428, 127.787109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.919998, "volume": 2712643, "typical_volume": 7112873.35, "trend": 127.411233, "fair_value": 146.221419, "relative_strength": -5.268422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.823359, "energy": 15.382382, "activity_lines": [ 126.928, 128.711271, 128.848666, 127.734949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }