{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d501d8d8-622d-4f2f-98a5-22c94c5f6948", "symbol": "MCX", "name": "Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.621, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -7.038, "architecture_energy": 27.255, "architecture_maturity": 34.85, "architecture_confidence": 65.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.27, "rotation_up": 15.58, "upward_expansion": 46.41, "deceleration": 69.85, "rotation_down": 44.96, "downward_expansion": 42.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2694.299984, 2738.467258, 2826.246177, 2779.776761 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2638.0, "trend_reference": 2691.719987, "distance_from_trend": -0.019957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1404.959692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.877634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.384238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108217, "excess_performance": 0.151926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096778, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.877634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.722906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133842, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.466185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108217, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.228429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12714461, "relative_activity": 1.112391, "balance": 0.228429, "dry_up": 0.76406, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072397, "annualized_volatility": 0.313989, "from_high_reference": -0.241954, "from_low_reference": 0.80586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2691.719987, "fair_value_reference": 1404.959692, "structural_low": 2168.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016977, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.031416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.244268, "worst_return": -0.222885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.073857, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222755, "worst_return": -0.326004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071965, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.058785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.704804, "worst_return": -0.241322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 11922183.3, "trend": 2676.819987, "fair_value": 1390.036855, "relative_strength": 17.654061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.413473, "energy": 13.472821, "activity_lines": [ 2731.926644, 2767.78362, 2842.935224, 2782.281276 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2638.0, "volume": 12714461, "typical_volume": 11429845.55, "trend": 2691.719987, "fair_value": 1404.959692, "relative_strength": 13.384238, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.037566, "energy": 27.255268, "activity_lines": [ 2694.299984, 2738.467258, 2826.246177, 2779.776761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }