{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5029048-01f5-4176-9cd1-6289a5d9f775", "symbol": "3595", "name": "Alliance Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -8.628, "architecture_energy": 19.732, "architecture_maturity": 45.241, "architecture_confidence": 73.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.0, "rotation_up": 17.67, "upward_expansion": 44.4, "deceleration": 74.22, "rotation_down": 43.68, "downward_expansion": 36.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1615.380933, 1769.577686, 1902.741107, 1797.213709 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1380.0, "trend_reference": 1526.213868, "distance_from_trend": -0.095802, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 359.597871, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.83762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.287808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.114393, "excess_performance": 1.673021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.525584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.83762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -6.73859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.142878, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.936639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.114393, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575554, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2175744, "relative_activity": 0.706659, "balance": 0.575554, "dry_up": 0.936817, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.318367, "annualized_volatility": 1.244214, "from_high_reference": -0.447714, "from_low_reference": 6.020581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1526.213868, "fair_value_reference": 359.597871, "structural_low": 432.276283, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019915, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007999, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.550562, "worst_return": -0.150754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.306533, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.170863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.847776, "worst_return": -0.082707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 5.319095, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 4.845521, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 8.320844, "worst_return": 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340.343939, "relative_strength": 48.162207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.485743, "energy": 9.120874, "activity_lines": [ 1860.203182, 1926.082191, 1980.243713, 1790.179509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1660.0, "volume": 2585000, "typical_volume": 3231311.95, "trend": 1489.000988, "fair_value": 350.891965, "relative_strength": 44.711343, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.19282, "energy": 12.669517, "activity_lines": [ 1768.856543, 1868.007144, 1955.059811, 1804.246031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1380.0, "volume": 2175744, "typical_volume": 3078916.8, "trend": 1526.213868, "fair_value": 359.597871, "relative_strength": 14.287808, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.628467, "energy": 19.731671, "activity_lines": [ 1615.380933, 1769.577686, 1902.741107, 1797.213709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }