{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d50adb3c-32df-44f3-89d3-c132e8b4582f", "symbol": "NESR", "name": "National Energy Services Reunited Corp Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.032, "architecture_energy": 39.096, "architecture_maturity": 70.447, "architecture_confidence": 74.683, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.27, "rotation_up": 50.63, "upward_expansion": 77.79, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 22.85, "downward_expansion": 4.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.026667, 27.716909, 26.579238, 25.506215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.02, "trend_reference": 24.021, "distance_from_trend": 0.20811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.425401, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.539955, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 35.806615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.390513, "excess_performance": 0.203059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.20811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.539955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.358066, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.390513, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.066215, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8229887, "relative_activity": 0.836749, "balance": 1.066215, "dry_up": 0.872174, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106266, "annualized_volatility": 0.524339, "from_high_reference": -0.04256, "from_low_reference": 3.357357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.021, "fair_value_reference": 11.425401, "structural_low": 18.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.043018, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": 0.022663, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.292293, "worst_return": -0.289051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.181143, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009095, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.445972, "worst_return": -0.590054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063584, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.04611, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.027505, "worst_return": -0.556452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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66.828389, "energy": 54.876024, "activity_lines": [ 26.865333, 26.008909, 24.889429, 23.823226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.62, "volume": 10940667, "typical_volume": 10607340.65, "trend": 22.409333, "fair_value": 10.803734, "relative_strength": 44.234532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.229201, "energy": 61.336506, "activity_lines": [ 27.666667, 26.585455, 25.327238, 24.253441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.99, "volume": 8462441, "typical_volume": 10634318.4, "trend": 22.851667, "fair_value": 10.960272, "relative_strength": 44.188749, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.236731, "energy": 66.145541, "activity_lines": [ 27.943333, 26.976909, 25.684952, 24.613484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.62, "volume": 9192109, "typical_volume": 10285821.15, "trend": 23.269333, "fair_value": 11.11617, "relative_strength": 41.760112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.615408, "energy": 52.319707, "activity_lines": [ 27.997333, 27.212182, 25.993429, 24.921118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.96, "volume": 8428825, "typical_volume": 10051205.5, "trend": 23.641667, "fair_value": 11.264952, "relative_strength": 35.0992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.070449, "energy": 38.577419, "activity_lines": [ 27.626, 27.288182, 26.206857, 25.159226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.02, "volume": 8229887, "typical_volume": 9835550.85, "trend": 24.021, "fair_value": 11.425401, "relative_strength": 35.806615, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.032415, "energy": 39.095951, "activity_lines": [ 28.026667, 27.716909, 26.579238, 25.506215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }