{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d50f5779-4bbb-47ff-b5cb-2fe45f38971d", "symbol": "XS3R", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Consumer Staples EGS Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.592, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.767, "architecture_energy": 29.668, "architecture_maturity": 20.673, "architecture_confidence": 42.053, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.02, "rotation_up": 51.87, "upward_expansion": 49.58, "deceleration": 41.6, "rotation_down": 25.56, "downward_expansion": 10.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 12345.533333, 12294.254545, 12091.619048, 12046.658065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12396.0, "trend_reference": 12088.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.025466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12253.363144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.461995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035706, "excess_performance": -0.086941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006768, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073001, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4478, "relative_activity": 5.035421, "balance": 0.277063, "dry_up": 2.228438, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030989, "annualized_volatility": 0.205652, "from_high_reference": -0.112711, "from_low_reference": 0.133297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12088.166667, "fair_value_reference": 12253.363144, "structural_low": 10938.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021086, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.017546, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.000161, "worst_return": -0.029537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014929, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048081, "worst_return": -0.057702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034424, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.069468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.000252, "worst_return": -0.115286, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135473, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073038, "active": 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"energy": 49.908164, "activity_lines": [ 12196.066667, 12022.945455, 11871.747619, 11957.23871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12204.0, "volume": 168, "typical_volume": 571.9, "trend": 12029.733333, "fair_value": 12283.670836, "relative_strength": -4.50263, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.939262, "energy": 48.98386, "activity_lines": [ 12243.2, 12079.781818, 11897.771429, 11969.08172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12451.0, "volume": 1616, "typical_volume": 645.3, "trend": 12043.3, "fair_value": 12275.952887, "relative_strength": -3.251279, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.49435, "energy": 57.361039, "activity_lines": [ 12333.6, 12170.109091, 11952.9, 11996.260215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12147.0, "volume": 1801, "typical_volume": 699.95, "trend": 12055.733333, "fair_value": 12265.978528, "relative_strength": -6.45882, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.34151, "energy": 37.872925, "activity_lines": [ 12294.866667, 12189.963636, 11983.37619, 12002.950538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12414.0, "volume": 32, "typical_volume": 676.45, "trend": 12076.8, "fair_value": 12259.77981, "relative_strength": -5.321156, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.701033, "energy": 29.543021, "activity_lines": [ 12322.066667, 12248.672727, 12039.847619, 12026.064516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12396.0, "volume": 4478, "typical_volume": 889.3, "trend": 12088.166667, "fair_value": 12253.363144, "relative_strength": -5.461995, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.767388, "energy": 29.66843, "activity_lines": [ 12345.533333, 12294.254545, 12091.619048, 12046.658065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }