{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d51609e8-244c-4ceb-9401-1366d81e2345", "symbol": "SERA", "name": "Sera Prognostics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.478, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.469, "architecture_energy": 8.769, "architecture_maturity": 21.524, "architecture_confidence": 69.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.07, "rotation_up": 29.65, "upward_expansion": 30.99, "deceleration": 44.19, "rotation_down": 21.15, "downward_expansion": 39.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.048667, 2.002, 1.993571, 2.026473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.07, "trend_reference": 2.177167, "distance_from_trend": -0.049223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.579327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.547969, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.008453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178571, "excess_performance": -0.366025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049223, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.547969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050405, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.365586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238652, "relative_activity": 1.029528, "balance": 1.365586, "dry_up": 0.90131, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17654, "annualized_volatility": 0.674466, "from_high_reference": -0.475949, "from_low_reference": 0.326923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.177167, "fair_value_reference": 4.579327, "structural_low": 1.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.077047, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.09642, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.36205, "worst_return": -0.372274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033617, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.145529, "worst_return": -0.5575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.090824, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.235637, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.073355, "worst_return": -0.539062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.169547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.803974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.93675, "worst_return": -0.597656, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.423986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08867, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13591, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.292835, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.275434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.223108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009756, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.08, "volume": 250899, "typical_volume": 144337.4, "trend": 3.173833, "fair_value": 4.526765, "relative_strength": -26.060777, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -61.26356, 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1.965333, 1.966909, 1.972071, 2.068183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 182456, "typical_volume": 287185.85, "trend": 2.263167, "fair_value": 4.587147, "relative_strength": -28.919545, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.835635, "energy": 10.645872, "activity_lines": [ 2.010667, 1.981818, 1.979095, 2.051269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.04, "volume": 217833, "typical_volume": 247059.5, "trend": 2.231167, "fair_value": 4.582276, "relative_strength": -29.028724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.672264, "energy": 9.428167, "activity_lines": [ 2.032667, 1.988909, 1.98469, 2.036871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.07, "volume": 238652, "typical_volume": 231807.25, "trend": 2.177167, "fair_value": 4.579327, "relative_strength": -31.008453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.469237, "energy": 8.769265, "activity_lines": [ 2.048667, 2.002, 1.993571, 2.026473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }