{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d51790ea-fb75-425d-a426-6a68d8cbe189", "symbol": "AMU", "name": "American Uranium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.427, "architecture_energy": 89.634, "architecture_maturity": 83.085, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 21.69, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 64.11, "downward_expansion": 99.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.069667, 0.072691, 0.082618, 0.095227 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.068, "trend_reference": 0.116019, "distance_from_trend": -0.413889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.190645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.643316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.773381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.587879, "excess_performance": -0.651584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.413889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178058, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.643316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.527734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141086, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.587879, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.098021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209556, "relative_activity": 0.177371, "balance": 0.098021, "dry_up": 0.51976, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100679, "annualized_volatility": 0.738077, "from_high_reference": -0.773333, "from_low_reference": 0.014925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.116019, "fair_value_reference": 0.190645, "structural_low": 0.067, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.032654, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.276923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.114584, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.122679, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.788991, "worst_return": -0.347827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.283796, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.264698, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.252293, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.32807, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.013761, "worst_return": -0.521502, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.961538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, 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"relative_strength": -48.583773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.993722, "energy": 88.365584, "activity_lines": [ 0.0734, 0.077236, 0.088324, 0.101997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.067, "volume": 524377, "typical_volume": 1194725.8, "trend": 0.118752, "fair_value": 0.192132, "relative_strength": -52.61595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.676968, "energy": 93.140121, "activity_lines": [ 0.071267, 0.074636, 0.085297, 0.098501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.068, "volume": 209556, "typical_volume": 1181458.05, "trend": 0.116019, "fair_value": 0.190645, "relative_strength": -52.773381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.426521, "energy": 89.633579, "activity_lines": [ 0.069667, 0.072691, 0.082618, 0.095227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }