{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d51cab50-4dd3-4f5a-af86-143b286519f3", "symbol": "HFGO", "name": "HARTFORD LARGE CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.702, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.065, "architecture_energy": 22.247, "architecture_maturity": 55.645, "architecture_confidence": 84.067, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.28, "rotation_up": 31.81, "upward_expansion": 56.13, "deceleration": 87.7, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 19.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.814993, 28.829371, 28.815326, 28.172855 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.03, "trend_reference": 27.428963, "distance_from_trend": 0.094828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.65626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.824704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16712, "excess_performance": 0.041495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094828, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.97207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 453595, "relative_activity": 2.436175, "balance": 1.97207, "dry_up": 1.180795, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048325, "annualized_volatility": 0.235322, "from_high_reference": -0.033784, "from_low_reference": 0.291613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.428963, "fair_value_reference": 22.65626, "structural_low": 23.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024792, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.020031, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.106805, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078455, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.02825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17254, "worst_return": -0.086083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.198794, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263288, "worst_return": 0.041966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078896, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077116, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03946, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.8206, "volume": 6821, "typical_volume": 18215.6, "trend": 14.196173, "fair_value": 14.096824, "relative_strength": 3.239414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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22.403183, "relative_strength": -4.100898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.120181, "energy": 22.915633, "activity_lines": [ 28.883173, 29.056584, 28.58912, 27.917259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.79, "volume": 103390, "typical_volume": 172337.65, "trend": 27.310963, "fair_value": 22.478799, "relative_strength": -5.192411, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.085079, "energy": 17.129569, "activity_lines": [ 28.485247, 28.801695, 28.595696, 27.948334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.1, "volume": 84178, "typical_volume": 169162.25, "trend": 27.338963, "fair_value": 22.560565, "relative_strength": -5.017834, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.962376, "energy": 16.783026, "activity_lines": [ 28.322653, 28.628805, 28.620797, 27.999239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.03, "volume": 453595, "typical_volume": 186191.5, "trend": 27.428963, "fair_value": 22.65626, "relative_strength": -1.824704, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.065436, "energy": 22.247372, "activity_lines": [ 28.814993, 28.829371, 28.815326, 28.172855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }