{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d51e4259-9b27-4f35-b98a-0d3078801b4a", "symbol": "VRLA", "name": "Verallia Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.021, "architecture_energy": 27.694, "architecture_maturity": 29.033, "architecture_confidence": 68.16, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.31, "rotation_up": 24.65, "upward_expansion": 20.64, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 58.28, "downward_expansion": 41.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.793333, 19.181454, 19.355425, 19.133765 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.559999, "trend_reference": 19.232541, "distance_from_trend": -0.034969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.982572, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.949616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171575, "excess_performance": -0.224887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257082, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762164, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82280, "relative_activity": 0.614324, "balance": 0.762164, "dry_up": 0.952473, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052677, "annualized_volatility": 0.35378, "from_high_reference": -0.326976, "from_low_reference": 0.259206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.232541, "fair_value_reference": 24.982572, "structural_low": 14.73945, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001216, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006355, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.206541, "worst_return": -0.092346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009768, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.167106, "worst_return": -0.080654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071431, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.120162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1354, "worst_return": -0.187639, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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18.66, "volume": 93823, "typical_volume": 167396.4, "trend": 19.486858, "fair_value": 25.179695, "relative_strength": -13.84847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.424775, "energy": 10.926197, "activity_lines": [ 19.565333, 19.646182, 19.457743, 19.26824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 213613, "typical_volume": 163554.6, "trend": 19.357503, "fair_value": 25.079058, "relative_strength": -16.443521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.48657, "energy": 19.344805, "activity_lines": [ 19.101334, 19.363636, 19.393945, 19.185217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.559999, "volume": 82280, "typical_volume": 133935.8, "trend": 19.232541, "fair_value": 24.982572, "relative_strength": -15.949616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.020627, "energy": 27.693994, "activity_lines": [ 18.793333, 19.181454, 19.355425, 19.133765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }