{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d5253fd6-4064-4333-ac92-c9aa84411e42",
    "symbol": "PAEX",
    "name": "Invesco MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 95.771,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 25.492,
    "architecture_energy": 25.244,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.522,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.618,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.01,
        "rotation_up": 23.58,
        "upward_expansion": 57.24,
        "deceleration": 88.32,
        "rotation_down": 41.49,
        "downward_expansion": 23.24
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 4.5815,
    "trend_reference": 4.336375,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.056528,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.173622,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097728,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.176451,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.11894,
    "excess_performance": 0.067705,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056528,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057167,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097728,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009671,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.041765,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009147,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11894,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.032975,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3103,
      "relative_activity": 0.184869,
      "balance": 1.032975,
      "dry_up": 0.65897,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039565,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.226898,
      "from_high_reference": -0.133603,
      "from_low_reference": 0.213723
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.336375,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.173622,
      "structural_low": 3.778,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.032519,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000331,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.052278,
        "worst_return": -0.044233,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.03117,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019269,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.039193,
        "worst_return": 0.023146,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.098907,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053705,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.115931,
        "worst_return": 0.081883,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.051212,
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        "worst_return": 0.085058,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "typical_volume": 22225.1,
        "trend": 4.101883,
        "fair_value": 4.12686,
        "relative_strength": -1.491685,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.290858,
        "energy": 88.654408,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.566867,
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          4.290179,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 13393,
        "typical_volume": 21781.4,
        "trend": 4.120308,
        "fair_value": 4.130956,
        "relative_strength": -4.942656,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.234431,
        "energy": 62.134311,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 20369.2,
        "trend": 4.1411,
        "fair_value": 4.135184,
        "relative_strength": -2.333237,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.95133,
        "energy": 63.470058,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 19634.85,
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        "relative_strength": 3.942942,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.326238,
        "energy": 73.059527,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 6459,
        "typical_volume": 18622.5,
        "trend": 4.202817,
        "fair_value": 4.14766,
        "relative_strength": -0.473086,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.829345,
        "energy": 62.304394,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.704367,
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          4.455263,
          4.345153
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 4.78025,
        "volume": 13611,
        "typical_volume": 17539.7,
        "trend": 4.23295,
        "fair_value": 4.154078,
        "relative_strength": -0.249292,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.653468,
        "energy": 73.498606,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4.382407
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 4.70225,
        "volume": 8987,
        "typical_volume": 16940.6,
        "trend": 4.2616,
        "fair_value": 4.158914,
        "relative_strength": 0.168484,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.961612,
        "energy": 67.244236,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.74255,
          4.688509,
          4.53219,
          4.412684
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 4.41475,
        "volume": 28738,
        "typical_volume": 17527.15,
        "trend": 4.280075,
        "fair_value": 4.162263,
        "relative_strength": -6.390814,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.690419,
        "energy": 38.596545,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.634367,
          4.646895,
          4.535908,
          4.422565
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.4985,
        "volume": 832,
        "typical_volume": 16834.8,
        "trend": 4.301417,
        "fair_value": 4.165519,
        "relative_strength": -5.373691,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.625736,
        "energy": 25.067457,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.56865,
          4.623018,
          4.546729,
          4.436657
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.4395,
        "volume": 11570,
        "typical_volume": 17138.95,
        "trend": 4.318025,
        "fair_value": 4.168845,
        "relative_strength": -7.305274,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.140047,
        "energy": 24.874254,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.508033,
          4.588405,
          4.549421,
          4.445566
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.5815,
        "volume": 3103,
        "typical_volume": 16784.9,
        "trend": 4.336375,
        "fair_value": 4.173622,
        "relative_strength": -4.176451,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.492079,
        "energy": 25.24431,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.51285,
          4.581359,
          4.563283,
          4.462564
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}