{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d52817d9-5773-4092-9deb-14ef06a02970", "symbol": "EVOE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Low Vol EuropeUCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.559, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.963, "architecture_energy": 94.053, "architecture_maturity": 29.069, "architecture_confidence": 80.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 74.41, "upward_expansion": 97.59, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 18.81, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.36, 223.854545, 219.711428, 217.001074 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 227.699997, "trend_reference": 214.131665, "distance_from_trend": 0.063364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.355577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.221858, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.682871, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079659, "excess_performance": -0.091233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.221858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047412, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079659, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.258993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142, "relative_activity": 0.815623, "balance": 6.258993, "dry_up": 0.407812, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01152, "annualized_volatility": 0.168721, "from_high_reference": -0.002191, "from_low_reference": 0.186803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 214.131665, "fair_value_reference": 186.355577, "structural_low": 200.149994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.003434, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008666, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.064756, "worst_return": -0.085864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003533, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.015068, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.101358, "worst_return": -0.04269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064822, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.004317, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.103023, "worst_return": -0.115165, "sufficient": true }, { 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225.75, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 221.1, "trend": 210.406332, "fair_value": 184.237372, "relative_strength": -5.92169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.164154, "energy": 92.01031, "activity_lines": [ 221.106666, 217.970908, 214.353094, 212.915461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 222.75, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 220.65, "trend": 211.226665, "fair_value": 184.657179, "relative_strength": -6.572567, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.052666, "energy": 84.352676, "activity_lines": [ 222.23, 219.242726, 215.300475, 213.711827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 224.0, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 222.95, "trend": 211.959999, "fair_value": 185.071666, "relative_strength": -4.524987, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.430561, "energy": 90.119428, "activity_lines": [ 223.196666, 220.542727, 216.348809, 214.535913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 223.050003, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 223.0, "trend": 212.661665, "fair_value": 185.467115, "relative_strength": -4.600173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.024842, "energy": 87.262063, "activity_lines": [ 223.400001, 221.468182, 217.282619, 215.251397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 225.5, "volume": 95, "typical_volume": 212.7, "trend": 213.418332, "fair_value": 185.904679, "relative_strength": -4.022311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.7721, "energy": 90.152473, "activity_lines": [ 224.196667, 222.57, 218.430238, 216.079677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 227.699997, "volume": 142, "typical_volume": 174.1, "trend": 214.131665, "fair_value": 186.355577, "relative_strength": -5.682871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.963128, "energy": 94.052677, "activity_lines": [ 225.36, 223.854545, 219.711428, 217.001074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }