{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d52d5055-b960-418b-a460-adc9882ed059", "symbol": "FSLR", "name": "First Solar Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.713, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.452, "architecture_energy": 12.186, "architecture_maturity": 43.722, "architecture_confidence": 61.903, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.38, "rotation_up": 19.37, "upward_expansion": 16.14, "deceleration": 65.98, "rotation_down": 53.91, "downward_expansion": 43.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.642667, 227.983636, 234.477238, 228.880581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 250.05, "trend_reference": 224.909667, "distance_from_trend": 0.11178, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 196.540801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272255, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.99938, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.14319, "excess_performance": -0.044263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033553, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130213, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14319, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21442459, "relative_activity": 1.861914, "balance": 1.204322, "dry_up": 1.09328, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130635, "annualized_volatility": 0.582561, "from_high_reference": -0.220907, "from_low_reference": 0.416955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.909667, "fair_value_reference": 196.540801, "structural_low": 182.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01504, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.025758, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.358891, "worst_return": -0.148512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088354, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.065448, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.36925, "worst_return": -0.218335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.108811, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.20995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.769086, "worst_return": -0.149272, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.568393, "energy": 23.022912, "activity_lines": [ 235.823333, 249.130909, 236.685381, 231.129097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 211.99, "volume": 9630695, "typical_volume": 10788574.9, "trend": 228.869333, "fair_value": 196.180224, "relative_strength": -16.407015, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.857594, "energy": 23.349022, "activity_lines": [ 225.388, 241.975455, 235.571381, 229.921849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 202.82, "volume": 7823062, "typical_volume": 10698737.2, "trend": 226.640333, "fair_value": 196.144455, "relative_strength": -18.58821, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.041476, "energy": 30.950067, "activity_lines": [ 215.584, 233.297455, 233.513619, 228.241247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.03, "volume": 11466168, "typical_volume": 10869984.4, "trend": 224.53, "fair_value": 196.251186, "relative_strength": -15.636971, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.001328, "energy": 28.720319, "activity_lines": [ 212.175333, 226.667636, 232.172952, 227.234129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 250.05, "volume": 21442459, "typical_volume": 11516351.65, "trend": 224.909667, "fair_value": 196.540801, "relative_strength": -4.99938, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.452265, "energy": 12.186428, "activity_lines": [ 223.642667, 227.983636, 234.477238, 228.880581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }