{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d534541b-ac36-4e4c-92b2-b46a839203c1", "symbol": "TTT", "name": "Titomic Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.507, "architecture_energy": 78.432, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 14.91, "upward_expansion": 16.06, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 78.24, "downward_expansion": 94.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.112667, 0.126455, 0.15231, 0.174194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.105, "trend_reference": 0.200833, "distance_from_trend": -0.477178, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.178131, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.410548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.036757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.596154, "excess_performance": -0.568924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.477178, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.410548, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.66755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.500368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.596154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14051093, "relative_activity": 2.546809, "balance": 0.198797, "dry_up": 2.537797, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208425, "annualized_volatility": 0.64009, "from_high_reference": -0.671875, "from_low_reference": 0.071429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.200833, "fair_value_reference": 0.178131, "structural_low": 0.098, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.075, "positive_rate": 0.310345, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.090288, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.857147, "worst_return": -0.418176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.088324, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.107302, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.533344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059361, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.049196, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.606257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.377778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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0.174167, 0.192828 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 0.12, "volume": 6390373, "typical_volume": 4487119.75, "trend": 0.208167, "fair_value": 0.176946, "relative_strength": -44.807042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.507845, "energy": 89.097542, "activity_lines": [ 0.126333, 0.141727, 0.167095, 0.186946 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 0.11, "volume": 23126169, "typical_volume": 5163557.05, "trend": 0.2045, "fair_value": 0.177561, "relative_strength": -48.423538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.489781, "energy": 89.619913, "activity_lines": [ 0.118333, 0.133909, 0.159643, 0.180613 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 0.105, "volume": 14051093, "typical_volume": 5517137.45, "trend": 0.200833, "fair_value": 0.178131, "relative_strength": -50.036757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.50694, "energy": 78.431738, "activity_lines": [ 0.112667, 0.126455, 0.15231, 0.174194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }