{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5385440-d740-48ba-aa3d-3ac85784093c", "symbol": "XMVE", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EMU Screened UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.865, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.267, "architecture_energy": 67.38, "architecture_maturity": 46.312, "architecture_confidence": 48.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.12, "rotation_up": 47.62, "upward_expansion": 73.83, "deceleration": 74.91, "rotation_down": 29.7, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.308333, 40.275727, 39.637952, 38.968079 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.855, "trend_reference": 38.25073, "distance_from_trend": 0.068084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.085267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.858546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091653, "excess_performance": -0.079238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 248.333333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16, "relative_activity": 0.083398, "balance": 248.333333, "dry_up": 1.004691, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012831, "annualized_volatility": 0.155181, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.238471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.25073, "fair_value_reference": 32.085267, "structural_low": 34.735001, "invalidation": "A 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"red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.094393, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 202.3, "trend": 37.870295, "fair_value": 31.821458, "relative_strength": -3.159632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.240766, "energy": 85.107957, "activity_lines": [ 40.377999, 40.055363, 39.106237, 38.536965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.77, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 201.4, "trend": 37.997185, "fair_value": 31.906153, "relative_strength": -4.152163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.345138, "energy": 67.636849, "activity_lines": [ 40.144666, 40.076272, 39.254714, 38.659527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.055, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 196.15, "trend": 38.130262, "fair_value": 31.992675, "relative_strength": -4.034889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.076514, "energy": 54.268305, "activity_lines": [ 40.066666, 40.116817, 39.417142, 38.792289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.855, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 191.85, "trend": 38.25073, "fair_value": 32.085267, "relative_strength": -4.858546, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.267123, "energy": 67.380065, "activity_lines": [ 40.308333, 40.275727, 39.637952, 38.968079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }