{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d538a228-518b-4586-86cf-3ba8b1c4626b", "symbol": "QIIWI", "name": "Qiiwi Games AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 78.715, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.35, "architecture_energy": 39.409, "architecture_maturity": 34.111, "architecture_confidence": 68.212, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.18, "rotation_up": 50.95, "upward_expansion": 69.68, "deceleration": 65.28, "rotation_down": 21.26, "downward_expansion": 8.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.412, 2.300909, 2.292286, 2.181849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.06, "trend_reference": 2.061167, "distance_from_trend": 0.484596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.320737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.386364, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.606299, "excess_performance": 0.544805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.484596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.256736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.143864, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.247444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.606299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.865378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 551820, "relative_activity": 7.47053, "balance": 3.865378, "dry_up": 2.059604, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122423, "annualized_volatility": 0.829749, "from_high_reference": -0.264423, "from_low_reference": 1.04 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.061167, "fair_value_reference": 3.320737, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030075, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.00269, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.182482, "worst_return": -0.314815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.316773, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.405018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.109023, "worst_return": -0.524523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.559085, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.733962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.394737, "worst_return": -0.723433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.640327, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.888991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.640327, "worst_return": -0.640327, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.454082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.165468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.361502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093985, "active": false }, { 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22766, "typical_volume": 50825.6, "trend": 2.044833, "fair_value": 3.481122, "relative_strength": -19.155311, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.676923, "energy": 24.183557, "activity_lines": [ 2.167, 2.275636, 2.195905, 2.10486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.18, "volume": 16909, "typical_volume": 50406.2, "trend": 2.0395, "fair_value": 3.43484, "relative_strength": -18.599239, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.859086, "energy": 20.253965, "activity_lines": [ 2.165333, 2.240455, 2.208286, 2.113581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.1, "volume": 21939, "typical_volume": 49971.75, "trend": 2.034833, "fair_value": 3.399071, "relative_strength": -21.461508, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.283506, "energy": 11.6144, "activity_lines": [ 2.147667, 2.196, 2.211048, 2.117484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 17873, "typical_volume": 49198.05, "trend": 2.0275, "fair_value": 3.359712, "relative_strength": -24.753725, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.775797, "energy": 10.114615, "activity_lines": [ 2.103333, 2.145727, 2.202119, 2.115237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.06, "volume": 551820, "typical_volume": 73866.25, "trend": 2.061167, "fair_value": 3.320737, "relative_strength": 14.386364, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.350249, "energy": 39.409309, "activity_lines": [ 2.412, 2.300909, 2.292286, 2.181849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }