{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d53b1fd0-2449-4b4f-a0c7-bd06e76b7674", "symbol": "FREEM", "name": "Freemelt Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.988, "architecture_energy": 20.025, "architecture_maturity": 34.042, "architecture_confidence": 69.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.81, "rotation_up": 20.07, "upward_expansion": 53.74, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 39.98, "downward_expansion": 22.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.561467, 1.655636, 1.587343, 1.553004 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.504, "trend_reference": 1.5434, "distance_from_trend": -0.025528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.712565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.445543, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.118341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01377, "excess_performance": -0.075265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021105, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.445543, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118851, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1082128, "relative_activity": 0.642644, "balance": 0.439391, "dry_up": 0.958454, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154767, "annualized_volatility": 0.582297, "from_high_reference": -0.477778, "from_low_reference": 0.242975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.5434, "fair_value_reference": 2.712565, "structural_low": 1.21, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.104381, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.104567, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.329787, "worst_return": -0.493333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137681, "worst_return": -0.314286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.437798, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.491217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.34, "worst_return": -0.54529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.458667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.522583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.24, "worst_return": -0.677333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.43125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.196629, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 2238075, "typical_volume": 1828840.1, "trend": 1.537633, "fair_value": 2.807771, "relative_strength": -13.09061, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.670083, "energy": 70.914578, "activity_lines": [ 1.817733, 1.696, 1.58741, 1.55426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.588, "volume": 2003613, "typical_volume": 1851075.8, "trend": 1.5429, "fair_value": 2.777822, "relative_strength": -16.733586, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.604106, "energy": 37.334531, "activity_lines": [ 1.734533, 1.696036, 1.593295, 1.55751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.516, "volume": 1131827, "typical_volume": 1765229.55, "trend": 1.546933, "fair_value": 2.744463, "relative_strength": -19.601777, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.656303, "energy": 17.843973, "activity_lines": [ 1.6312, 1.678545, 1.590952, 1.555774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.504, "volume": 1082128, "typical_volume": 1683868.55, "trend": 1.5434, "fair_value": 2.712565, "relative_strength": -20.118341, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.987971, "energy": 20.024736, "activity_lines": [ 1.561467, 1.655636, 1.587343, 1.553004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }