{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5426f6a-9571-418d-a28a-67dca51aab6c", "symbol": "MAGURO", "name": "Maguro Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.546, "architecture_energy": 24.094, "architecture_maturity": 9.96, "architecture_confidence": 46.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.11, "rotation_up": 46.79, "upward_expansion": 41.52, "deceleration": 34.39, "rotation_down": 14.39, "downward_expansion": 38.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.366667, 18.916364, 18.403334, 18.773648 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.9, "trend_reference": 19.389447, "distance_from_trend": -0.025243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.268736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.703221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121763, "excess_performance": -0.314088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07246, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023398, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121763, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5356400, "relative_activity": 1.555727, "balance": 0.968536, "dry_up": 1.785547, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061457, "annualized_volatility": 0.342569, "from_high_reference": -0.270897, "from_low_reference": 0.227273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.389447, "fair_value_reference": 18.268736, "structural_low": 15.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039756, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004951, "worst_return": -0.074561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.291573, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.352772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.291573, "worst_return": -0.291573, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 19.106667, 18.485455, 18.226857, 18.775682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.9, "volume": 5040400, "typical_volume": 3263635.0, "trend": 19.405059, "fair_value": 18.26315, "relative_strength": -16.203495, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.269538, "energy": 36.617327, "activity_lines": [ 19.486667, 18.823637, 18.360953, 18.806233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.9, "volume": 5356400, "typical_volume": 3443020.0, "trend": 19.389447, "fair_value": 18.268736, "relative_strength": -19.703221, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.545529, "energy": 24.094058, "activity_lines": [ 19.366667, 18.916364, 18.403334, 18.773648 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }