{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d54c3212-cda9-4492-a418-9e6cfb4d6405", "symbol": "TOST", "name": "Toast Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.579, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 57.107, "architecture_energy": 72.505, "architecture_maturity": 24.46, "architecture_confidence": 63.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.05, "rotation_up": 76.83, "upward_expansion": 65.08, "deceleration": 20.94, "rotation_down": 16.42, "downward_expansion": 23.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.872, 30.085636, 28.220286, 27.870086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.48, "trend_reference": 28.015333, "distance_from_trend": 0.230755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.993397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.996291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.243419, "excess_performance": 0.117794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.230755, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.301495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3419, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.243419, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.477634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65304612, "relative_activity": 1.157208, "balance": 2.477634, "dry_up": 0.919891, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082054, "annualized_volatility": 0.490497, "from_high_reference": -0.244522, "from_low_reference": 0.548967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.015333, "fair_value_reference": 29.993397, "structural_low": 22.26, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005602, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050401, "worst_return": -0.003295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035538, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203836, "worst_return": -0.00887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.200988, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.345515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103479, "worst_return": -0.337535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.54685, "energy": 33.966949, "activity_lines": [ 28.864, 27.325091, 26.776333, 27.142172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.04, "volume": 47950144, "typical_volume": 55322025.9, "trend": 28.106333, "fair_value": 29.848397, "relative_strength": -18.160703, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.35784, "energy": 39.02423, "activity_lines": [ 29.213333, 27.847636, 26.985857, 27.186495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.27, "volume": 51149948, "typical_volume": 55479158.95, "trend": 28.048, "fair_value": 29.926923, "relative_strength": -8.851186, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.065278, "energy": 60.607804, "activity_lines": [ 30.347333, 28.848545, 27.508952, 27.455118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.48, "volume": 65304612, "typical_volume": 56432886.9, "trend": 28.015333, "fair_value": 29.993397, "relative_strength": -4.996291, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.106837, "energy": 72.504973, "activity_lines": [ 31.872, 30.085636, 28.220286, 27.870086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }