{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d54f3234-5a4a-497c-8519-5e9c618962e2", "symbol": "URE", "name": "Ur-Energy Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.422, "architecture_energy": 55.58, "architecture_maturity": 17.295, "architecture_confidence": 89.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.8, "rotation_up": 13.9, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 42.45, "rotation_down": 66.7, "downward_expansion": 85.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.81, 1.862727, 2.004095, 2.054129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.94, "trend_reference": 2.134667, "distance_from_trend": -0.091193, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.891538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.931016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110092, "excess_performance": -0.230513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008504, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02562, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.380366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1332000, "relative_activity": 1.072464, "balance": 0.380366, "dry_up": 0.898973, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119746, "annualized_volatility": 0.495257, "from_high_reference": -0.412121, "from_low_reference": 0.220126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.134667, "fair_value_reference": 1.891538, "structural_low": 1.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.039378, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.033747, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.503401, "worst_return": -0.316832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.037603, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.74359, "worst_return": -0.207921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094891, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.074812, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.168317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.535714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107981, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037433, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.58, "volume": 225400, "typical_volume": 234150.0, "trend": 1.385, "fair_value": 1.503526, "relative_strength": 5.815851, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural 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-64.215779, "energy": 64.534299, "activity_lines": [ 1.944, 2.054545, 2.127952, 2.151183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.74, "volume": 1115500, "typical_volume": 1539485.0, "trend": 2.165, "fair_value": 1.884808, "relative_strength": -24.925551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.759961, "energy": 74.253057, "activity_lines": [ 1.855333, 1.982727, 2.089714, 2.123161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 1033400, "typical_volume": 1487835.0, "trend": 2.158667, "fair_value": 1.887308, "relative_strength": -24.686072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.2394, "energy": 75.260119, "activity_lines": [ 1.798667, 1.922727, 2.05419, 2.095742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.72, "volume": 985200, "typical_volume": 1420095.0, "trend": 2.146333, "fair_value": 1.889359, "relative_strength": -24.995646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.614629, "energy": 73.631543, "activity_lines": [ 1.761333, 1.868909, 2.017571, 2.067441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.94, "volume": 1332000, "typical_volume": 1242000.0, "trend": 2.134667, "fair_value": 1.891538, "relative_strength": -17.931016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.421816, "energy": 55.580053, "activity_lines": [ 1.81, 1.862727, 2.004095, 2.054129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }