{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d54fe38e-b004-4422-b688-cc634ec76435", "symbol": "HUT", "name": "Hut 8 Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.743, "architecture_energy": 16.414, "architecture_maturity": 66.365, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.31, "rotation_up": 20.89, "upward_expansion": 54.36, "deceleration": 91.06, "rotation_down": 32.64, "downward_expansion": 20.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.191333, 145.53418, 144.178141, 130.209289 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 123.440002, "trend_reference": 112.314999, "distance_from_trend": 0.099052, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.493269, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.904931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.260406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.704266, "excess_performance": 0.583845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099052, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.355877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.904931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.370327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.272604, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.893017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.704266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.107495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1808200, "relative_activity": 0.65982, "balance": 2.107495, "dry_up": 0.787217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.224058, "annualized_volatility": 0.859807, "from_high_reference": -0.297359, "from_low_reference": 3.543246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.314999, "fair_value_reference": 42.493269, "structural_low": 58.619999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.101276, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.070346, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.776112, "worst_return": -0.349212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082409, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.374518, "worst_return": -0.50074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.266275, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.139576, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.728985, "worst_return": -0.792622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034251, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.197543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.90053, "worst_return": -0.875374, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.296346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218952, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.56222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.368748, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.640413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.231579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.500155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144689, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.413361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.218515, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204639, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.35, "volume": 2577440, "typical_volume": 3540283.0, "trend": 15.346667, "fair_value": 26.086859, "relative_strength": 22.626236, "stage": 1, 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"relative_strength": 71.644818, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.58655, "energy": 26.354223, "activity_lines": [ 145.069331, 152.327634, 142.257189, 126.650816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.0, "volume": 2587300, "typical_volume": 2877420.0, "trend": 110.985333, "fair_value": 41.829551, "relative_strength": 63.644637, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.426089, "energy": 19.916258, "activity_lines": [ 145.951332, 151.478725, 144.73176, 129.405762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.440002, "volume": 1808200, "typical_volume": 2740445.0, "trend": 112.314999, "fair_value": 42.493269, "relative_strength": 27.260406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.742831, "energy": 16.413922, "activity_lines": [ 139.191333, 145.53418, 144.178141, 130.209289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }