{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5505446-c249-4ef6-943c-ad60118788a4", "symbol": "BFST", "name": "Business First Bancshares Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.536, "architecture_energy": 70.393, "architecture_maturity": 24.873, "architecture_confidence": 80.397, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 71.71, "upward_expansion": 90.4, "deceleration": 45.33, "rotation_down": 13.92, "downward_expansion": 14.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.400667, 30.894364, 29.830553, 29.171143 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.66, "trend_reference": 28.498937, "distance_from_trend": 0.110919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.856718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32709, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.049033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072412, "excess_performance": -0.115042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054025, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113314, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03049, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130938, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.266116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1362076, "relative_activity": 1.263433, "balance": 1.266116, "dry_up": 1.118158, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043818, "annualized_volatility": 0.196142, "from_high_reference": -0.022538, "from_low_reference": 0.426924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.498937, "fair_value_reference": 23.856718, "structural_low": 25.457725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.026902, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": 0.018117, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.128255, "worst_return": -0.106302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.049054, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068534, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.366004, "worst_return": -0.142141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106323, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295028, "worst_return": -0.360718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.092889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.258866, "energy": 75.515146, "activity_lines": [ 30.496, 29.850909, 28.950878, 28.508553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.16, "volume": 1211451, "typical_volume": 1057197.85, "trend": 28.106717, "fair_value": 23.698783, "relative_strength": 7.65632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.617166, "energy": 71.024619, "activity_lines": [ 30.797333, 30.204909, 29.231359, 28.7157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.82, "volume": 1269980, "typical_volume": 1089836.1, "trend": 28.313903, "fair_value": 23.779608, "relative_strength": 9.056041, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.011206, "energy": 72.287438, "activity_lines": [ 31.159333, 30.600364, 29.552563, 28.955266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.66, "volume": 1362076, "typical_volume": 1078075.45, "trend": 28.498937, "fair_value": 23.856718, "relative_strength": 3.049033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.536248, "energy": 70.393325, "activity_lines": [ 31.400667, 30.894364, 29.830553, 29.171143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }