{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d55a599c-4526-48cd-87cb-514aa0c0155d", "symbol": "000425", "name": "XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.1, "architecture_energy": 35.389, "architecture_maturity": 39.878, "architecture_confidence": 57.802, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.93, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 16.0, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 41.07, "downward_expansion": 66.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.604, 8.566074, 8.911672, 9.363554 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.3, "trend_reference": 9.983905, "distance_from_trend": -0.168662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.011964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.443679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227188, "excess_performance": -0.234588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.245152, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 603052816, "relative_activity": 1.235632, "balance": 1.245152, "dry_up": 1.231527, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095302, "annualized_volatility": 0.320894, "from_high_reference": -0.356589, "from_low_reference": 0.042714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.983905, "fair_value_reference": 8.011964, "structural_low": 7.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019908, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.015995, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.153141, "worst_return": -0.061881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066617, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.047884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211462, "worst_return": -0.047068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02269, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101895, "worst_return": -0.0595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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8.356968, 8.621896, 9.139869, 9.644804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.89, "volume": 592472434, "typical_volume": 484131248.15, "trend": 10.169238, "fair_value": 7.988169, "relative_strength": -13.218481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.656003, "energy": 46.174369, "activity_lines": [ 8.522952, 8.618961, 9.065788, 9.557262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.96, "volume": 655022861, "typical_volume": 483791457.1, "trend": 10.093238, "fair_value": 8.002488, "relative_strength": -11.035194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.736231, "energy": 34.470022, "activity_lines": [ 8.704667, 8.648333, 9.014563, 9.479247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3, "volume": 603052816, "typical_volume": 488052264.5, "trend": 9.983905, "fair_value": 8.011964, "relative_strength": -21.443679, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.09993, "energy": 35.388839, "activity_lines": [ 8.604, 8.566074, 8.911672, 9.363554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }