{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d55a5f06-68ce-4b55-9dca-70faabec7080", "symbol": "FKA", "name": "Frauenthal Holding AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.237, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.741, "architecture_energy": 46.899, "architecture_maturity": 16.741, "architecture_confidence": 91.889, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 14.98, "upward_expansion": 10.63, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 63.55, "downward_expansion": 83.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.066667, 22.236364, 22.387619, 22.437849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.799999, "trend_reference": 22.573333, "distance_from_trend": -0.034259, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.101282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.293277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060345, "excess_performance": -0.234592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034259, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.045085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1701, "relative_activity": 2.72771, "balance": 0.045085, "dry_up": 1.423188, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03458, "annualized_volatility": 0.182082, "from_high_reference": -0.076271, "from_low_reference": 0.018692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.573333, "fair_value_reference": 23.101282, "structural_low": 21.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.004167, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.010391, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.034783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025424, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.007436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172043, "worst_return": -0.05, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.025801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182796, "worst_return": -0.108333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.008929, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.140251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018018, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.0, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 1412.4, "trend": 24.34892, "fair_value": 20.866163, "relative_strength": 2.689113, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.200618, "energy": 19.556945, "activity_lines": [ 24.133334, 24.104364, 23.84481, 23.976992 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 24.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1412.4, "trend": 24.251248, "fair_value": 20.906202, "relative_strength": 3.234823, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.812762, "energy": 18.597934, "activity_lines": [ 24.08, 24.109092, 23.867052, 23.954481 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 24.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1393.9, "trend": 24.200121, "fair_value": 20.951355, "relative_strength": 0.899052, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.325386, "energy": 15.257779, "activity_lines": [ 24.04, 24.098182, 23.891849, 23.938271 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 24.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1365.1, "trend": 24.148995, "fair_value": 20.992673, "relative_strength": 1.711149, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.477936, "energy": 21.88146, "activity_lines": [ 24.013333, 24.076364, 23.915399, 23.92536 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 24.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1353.6, "trend": 24.091219, "fair_value": 21.03399, "relative_strength": 0.483798, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.84536, "energy": 19.320559, "activity_lines": [ 24.0, 24.054546, 23.938655, 23.915748 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 23.799999, "volume": 15350, "typical_volume": 2121.1, "trend": 24.026776, "fair_value": 21.074026, "relative_strength": 0.520737, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.951766, "energy": 31.380835, "activity_lines": [ 23.933333, 24.0, 23.939717, 23.896959 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 2119.8, "trend": 23.975667, "fair_value": 21.116625, "relative_strength": 2.008139, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.041398, "energy": 23.055229, "activity_lines": [ 24.013333, 24.025455, 23.976682, 23.908135 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2112.25, "trend": 23.944506, "fair_value": 21.159225, "relative_strength": 3.598727, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.75272, "energy": 63.458666, "activity_lines": [ 24.08, 24.050909, 24.012399, 23.922608 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2092.25, "trend": 23.893397, "fair_value": 21.201824, "relative_strength": 2.772344, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.74174, "energy": 84.544395, "activity_lines": [ 24.133334, 24.076364, 24.046867, 23.939092 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2067.25, "trend": 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23.129487, "relative_strength": -19.622313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.440598, "energy": 30.329796, "activity_lines": [ 22.280001, 22.450909, 22.46381, 22.517419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 566.45, "trend": 22.606667, "fair_value": 23.116667, "relative_strength": -19.053551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.347659, "energy": 36.192813, "activity_lines": [ 22.240001, 22.374546, 22.442857, 22.489893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1701, "typical_volume": 623.6, "trend": 22.573333, "fair_value": 23.101282, "relative_strength": -22.293277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.741276, "energy": 46.899216, "activity_lines": [ 22.066667, 22.236364, 22.387619, 22.437849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }