{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d55e53bd-3706-452d-ab70-4b545c8a1ef1", "symbol": "5E2", "name": "Seatrium Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.712, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.523, "architecture_energy": 23.547, "architecture_maturity": 66.471, "architecture_confidence": 67.33, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.8, "rotation_up": 32.98, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 19.48, "downward_expansion": 52.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.111333, 2.062, 2.103796, 2.149516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.14, "trend_reference": 2.180075, "distance_from_trend": -0.018383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.040945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048534, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.991321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052268, "excess_performance": -0.102567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048534, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052268, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.890599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83976600, "relative_activity": 1.312666, "balance": 0.890599, "dry_up": 1.676482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057153, "annualized_volatility": 0.250218, "from_high_reference": -0.136386, "from_low_reference": 0.114583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.180075, "fair_value_reference": 2.040945, "structural_low": 1.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.021002, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.175675, "worst_return": -0.230089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028783, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04226, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309859, "worst_return": -0.210928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096774, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.142955, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.184713, "worst_return": -0.266355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.081333, 2.042182, 2.107777, 2.15217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.14, "volume": 83976600, "typical_volume": 63974071.8, "trend": 2.180075, "fair_value": 2.040945, "relative_strength": -17.991321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.523488, "energy": 23.547166, "activity_lines": [ 2.111333, 2.062, 2.103796, 2.149516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }