{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d55ee93b-e1e3-49d7-b330-03982c023444",
    "symbol": "EMBI",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy JPM Screened EMBI Global Diversified Composite UCITS ETF Capitalisation",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.106,
    "architecture_energy": 23.241,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.632,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.885,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.25,
        "rotation_up": 23.94,
        "upward_expansion": 56.29,
        "deceleration": 88.21,
        "rotation_down": 40.77,
        "downward_expansion": 22.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.837087,
        10.875816,
        10.862547,
        10.828829
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 10.8826,
    "trend_reference": 10.79728,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.007902,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.726937,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118811,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.785508,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.010671,
    "excess_performance": -0.042641,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007902,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007626,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.118811,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021775,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.047855,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073411,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010671,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.279862,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 28018,
      "relative_activity": 2.117195,
      "balance": 0.279862,
      "dry_up": 1.573708,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.008976,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.065665,
      "from_high_reference": -0.011077,
      "from_low_reference": 0.069753
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 10.79728,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.726937,
      "structural_low": 10.395,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.008554,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015526,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.037867,
        "worst_return": -0.017437,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.023282,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051463,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.043371,
        "worst_return": 0.01508,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.027847,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.034835,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.024576,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.079137,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.051014,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.073558,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001838,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00861,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
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        "return": 0.000692,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 20084,
        "typical_volume": 15243.2,
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        "fair_value": 9.683742,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 60.460282,
        "energy": 56.87204,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 27646,
        "typical_volume": 15349.85,
        "trend": 10.788623,
        "fair_value": 9.697571,
        "relative_strength": -1.954854,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.877028,
        "energy": 20.554902,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.7638,
        "volume": 7555,
        "typical_volume": 13222.7,
        "trend": 10.790993,
        "fair_value": 9.711906,
        "relative_strength": -3.64498,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.922851,
        "energy": 17.97627,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.83242,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.8826,
        "volume": 28018,
        "typical_volume": 13233.55,
        "trend": 10.79728,
        "fair_value": 9.726937,
        "relative_strength": -4.785508,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.105806,
        "energy": 23.240877,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}