{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d562c874-4ebb-412b-a8f9-22c659676a2e", "symbol": "8030", "name": "The Mediterranean and Gulf Cooperative Insurance and Reinsurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 81.895, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.744, "architecture_energy": 28.167, "architecture_maturity": 53.507, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.85, "rotation_up": 37.42, "upward_expansion": 61.31, "deceleration": 88.14, "rotation_down": 26.61, "downward_expansion": 15.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.738667, 15.800364, 15.381619, 15.126452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.99, "trend_reference": 14.776, "distance_from_trend": 0.149838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.921667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102088, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.819376, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130406, "excess_performance": 0.162235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102088, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.168194, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.065871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8441150, "relative_activity": 1.916492, "balance": 3.065871, "dry_up": 1.047982, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068773, "annualized_volatility": 0.340308, "from_high_reference": -0.03411, "from_low_reference": 0.538949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.776, "fair_value_reference": 18.921667, "structural_low": 13.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044379, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014144, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.119195, "worst_return": -0.125333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.11905, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.178017, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.054734, "worst_return": -0.246667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.22509, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.259311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.775148, "worst_return": -0.319111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.191581, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.164568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.766272, "worst_return": -0.383111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203953, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071199, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.120871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 13.96, "volume": 10486964, "typical_volume": 2906929.5, "trend": 9.49, "fair_value": 16.313457, "relative_strength": 40.486313, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.886339, "energy": 45.870981, "activity_lines": [ 15.831333, 15.664909, 15.138571, 14.898086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.56, "volume": 2168701, "typical_volume": 4078566.3, "trend": 14.529, "fair_value": 18.882308, "relative_strength": 7.193978, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.560685, "energy": 32.663287, "activity_lines": [ 15.692, 15.699273, 15.211381, 14.972581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.53, "volume": 3173526, "typical_volume": 4013837.75, "trend": 14.606, "fair_value": 18.900962, "relative_strength": 2.367234, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.186867, "energy": 16.689749, "activity_lines": [ 15.246, 15.528364, 15.179476, 14.972645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.99, "volume": 8441150, "typical_volume": 4404479.6, "trend": 14.776, "fair_value": 18.921667, "relative_strength": 16.819376, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.744022, "energy": 28.167377, "activity_lines": [ 15.738667, 15.800364, 15.381619, 15.126452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }