{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d56658ed-c089-4568-bed1-f3871fc2a025", "symbol": "SPYE", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Short PayPal ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.356, "architecture_energy": 95.889, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.11, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 86.51, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.220333, 9.164364, 9.82, 10.08843 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.7425, "trend_reference": 10.323792, "distance_from_trend": -0.250033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.480378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.852092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.365499, "excess_performance": -0.416734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046167, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.365499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.458354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.458354, "dry_up": 4.713599, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06515, "annualized_volatility": 0.45871, "from_high_reference": -0.37911, "from_low_reference": 0.231412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.323792, "fair_value_reference": 9.480378, "structural_low": 7.7425, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0037, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.105402, "worst_return": -0.093682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0437, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.108448, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.098087, "worst_return": -0.175124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06948, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.258043, "worst_return": -0.211171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130265, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.392965, "energy": 73.495526, "activity_lines": [ 11.236167, 10.998045, 10.75331, 10.639548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.6875, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24.0, "trend": 10.343458, "fair_value": 9.518567, "relative_strength": 6.995959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.396313, "energy": 42.475951, "activity_lines": [ 11.067333, 10.998182, 10.743149, 10.666815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.4375, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": 37.55, "trend": 10.411417, "fair_value": 9.5265, "relative_strength": 5.912421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.562603, "energy": 13.558451, "activity_lines": [ 10.808833, 10.933364, 10.71669, 10.672882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.29125, "volume": 1733, "typical_volume": 100.95, "trend": 10.399667, "fair_value": 9.52049, "relative_strength": -16.625545, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.363736, "energy": 50.658266, "activity_lines": [ 9.90475, 10.459318, 10.491923, 10.536097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.3225, "volume": 2958, "typical_volume": 248.85, "trend": 10.388875, "fair_value": 9.51521, "relative_strength": -17.407202, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -62.611715, "energy": 84.38215, "activity_lines": [ 9.227333, 10.028023, 10.280625, 10.402086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.15125, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 249.65, "trend": 10.366542, "fair_value": 9.500154, "relative_strength": -19.859, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.379649, "energy": 95.370966, "activity_lines": [ 8.698833, 9.608636, 10.062839, 10.257723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.7425, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 249.65, "trend": 10.323792, "fair_value": 9.480378, "relative_strength": -23.852092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.356095, "energy": 95.888559, "activity_lines": [ 8.220333, 9.164364, 9.82, 10.08843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }