{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d56a00d9-2895-474b-8608-4de3adc66060", "symbol": "SA", "name": "Seabridge Gold Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.369, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.55, "architecture_energy": 16.524, "architecture_maturity": 25.602, "architecture_confidence": 55.465, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.58, "rotation_up": 22.38, "upward_expansion": 14.93, "deceleration": 58.61, "rotation_down": 37.69, "downward_expansion": 62.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.472667, 27.217091, 28.277524, 28.990086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.13, "trend_reference": 30.057, "distance_from_trend": 0.035699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.188462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.711525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.989682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037667, "excess_performance": -0.087958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.711525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009897, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639518, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3616408, "relative_activity": 0.913739, "balance": 0.639518, "dry_up": 0.678587, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147896, "annualized_volatility": 0.765856, "from_high_reference": -0.222819, "from_low_reference": 0.97275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.057, "fair_value_reference": 18.188462, "structural_low": 23.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.036618, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.022486, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.367573, "worst_return": -0.135484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.079188, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029609, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.53575, "worst_return": -0.138822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.204668, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.046489, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.242147, "worst_return": -0.144337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.735085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127082, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.32, "volume": 1011899, "typical_volume": 1691567.4, "trend": 12.689667, "fair_value": 15.82, "relative_strength": -16.380896, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"2026-07-24", "close": 25.98, "volume": 2251682, "typical_volume": 4402585.8, "trend": 30.182, "fair_value": 17.976731, "relative_strength": -10.772274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.555042, "energy": 50.621405, "activity_lines": [ 25.852667, 27.026545, 28.322476, 29.202344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.81, "volume": 2316792, "typical_volume": 4302433.0, "trend": 30.048, "fair_value": 18.064936, "relative_strength": -12.728429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.16385, "energy": 45.392056, "activity_lines": [ 25.764667, 26.600727, 28.033476, 28.92028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.13, "volume": 3616408, "typical_volume": 3957814.2, "trend": 30.057, "fair_value": 18.188462, "relative_strength": 0.989682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.549692, "energy": 16.523937, "activity_lines": [ 27.472667, 27.217091, 28.277524, 28.990086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }