{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d57205c4-7236-4516-ace7-c069332b0cd2", "symbol": "IBU", "name": "IBU-tec advanced materials AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.694, "architecture_energy": 51.215, "architecture_maturity": 14.618, "architecture_confidence": 87.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.75, "rotation_up": 14.94, "upward_expansion": 9.54, "deceleration": 41.41, "rotation_down": 60.32, "downward_expansion": 82.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.993333, 15.254545, 15.596548, 15.860776 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.15, "trend_reference": 16.516337, "distance_from_trend": -0.082726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.148831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.309628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181411, "excess_performance": -0.246051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.607036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10913, "relative_activity": 0.596769, "balance": 1.607036, "dry_up": 0.390801, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072395, "annualized_volatility": 0.562196, "from_high_reference": -0.442822, "from_low_reference": 0.715358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.516337, "fair_value_reference": 13.148831, "structural_low": 12.553311, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.006383, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.512821, "median_excess_return": -0.00778, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.315, "worst_return": -0.347899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.087819, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.121055, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.534091, "worst_return": -0.431325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.219403, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.216277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.018868, "worst_return": -0.443373, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.154655, "energy": 45.722864, "activity_lines": [ 15.556667, 15.966057, 15.972461, 16.377634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.75, "volume": 5732, "typical_volume": 20967.35, "trend": 17.029142, "fair_value": 13.29134, "relative_strength": -10.20696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.401036, "energy": 62.775018, "activity_lines": [ 15.163333, 15.715993, 15.83791, 16.218564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.05, "volume": 7461, "typical_volume": 20217.85, "trend": 16.894046, "fair_value": 13.240869, "relative_strength": -9.920555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.432215, "energy": 61.3987, "activity_lines": [ 15.043333, 15.55, 15.74557, 16.090878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.9, "volume": 4480, "typical_volume": 18890.9, "trend": 16.722526, "fair_value": 13.196434, "relative_strength": -13.135843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.109457, "energy": 62.915139, "activity_lines": [ 14.97, 15.367273, 15.650683, 15.96223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.15, "volume": 10913, "typical_volume": 18286.8, "trend": 16.516337, "fair_value": 13.148831, "relative_strength": -14.309628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.693722, "energy": 51.215215, "activity_lines": [ 14.993333, 15.254545, 15.596548, 15.860776 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }