{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d581db54-7ce7-4aef-a3be-a3395d7a53a5", "symbol": "603928", "name": "Suzhou Xingye Materials Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.436, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.859, "architecture_energy": 17.008, "architecture_maturity": 36.739, "architecture_confidence": 69.026, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.99, "rotation_up": 21.52, "upward_expansion": 26.42, "deceleration": 70.49, "rotation_down": 56.09, "downward_expansion": 32.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.97, 12.569498, 12.427493, 12.279788 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.67, "trend_reference": 12.250609, "distance_from_trend": 0.034234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.836703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.433793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.198405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041386, "excess_performance": 0.08459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.433793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041984, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945757, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178441058, "relative_activity": 2.440555, "balance": 0.945757, "dry_up": 2.484786, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182324, "annualized_volatility": 0.911778, "from_high_reference": -0.360101, "from_low_reference": 0.308884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.250609, "fair_value_reference": 8.836703, "structural_low": 9.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001656, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008966, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.806983, "worst_return": -0.173575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.037463, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.03368, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.752743, "worst_return": -0.16885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108835, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.151709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.566638, "worst_return": -0.145882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 14.104, 13.265965, 12.65891, 12.460088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.8, "volume": 152755724, "typical_volume": 57236384.0, "trend": 12.30728, "fair_value": 8.776572, "relative_strength": -8.553802, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.128489, "energy": 30.822343, "activity_lines": [ 13.143333, 12.894689, 12.522705, 12.361264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.61, "volume": 181545285, "typical_volume": 65261698.15, "trend": 12.235602, "fair_value": 8.799799, "relative_strength": -10.305713, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.884316, "energy": 4.008753, "activity_lines": [ 12.159333, 12.526726, 12.373932, 12.251762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.67, "volume": 178441058, "typical_volume": 73114959.95, "trend": 12.250609, "fair_value": 8.836703, "relative_strength": 4.198405, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.858776, "energy": 17.00782, "activity_lines": [ 11.97, 12.569498, 12.427493, 12.279788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }