{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d582fcf0-a3a2-4459-8ecb-e3cb92b2ec02", "symbol": "VNQI", "name": "VANGUARD GLOBAL EX-U.S. REAL ESTATE INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.344, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.602, "architecture_energy": 14.234, "architecture_maturity": 12.469, "architecture_confidence": 59.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.06, "rotation_up": 33.9, "upward_expansion": 25.87, "deceleration": 37.36, "rotation_down": 22.39, "downward_expansion": 48.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.876667, 45.629091, 45.73219, 45.999269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.23, "trend_reference": 46.561333, "distance_from_trend": -0.007116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.010807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.513313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055953, "excess_performance": -0.243406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.814073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 995611, "relative_activity": 0.712288, "balance": 1.814073, "dry_up": 0.758838, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025652, "annualized_volatility": 0.195266, "from_high_reference": -0.091392, "from_low_reference": 0.070015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.561333, "fair_value_reference": 41.010807, "structural_low": 43.205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.009672, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.007141, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050549, "worst_return": -0.06444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006867, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.037944, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.095486, "worst_return": -0.136171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01663, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096057, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.168155, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.100829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", 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27.166796, "activity_lines": [ 45.334667, 45.334182, 45.725762, 46.201183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.72, "volume": 1115119, "typical_volume": 1561027.7, "trend": 46.618333, "fair_value": 40.826402, "relative_strength": -10.928467, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.495856, "energy": 21.532456, "activity_lines": [ 45.467333, 45.358364, 45.695429, 46.143871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.3, "volume": 906633, "typical_volume": 1454663.25, "trend": 46.591333, "fair_value": 40.878648, "relative_strength": -10.02922, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.59581, "energy": 20.219709, "activity_lines": [ 45.458, 45.342545, 45.648857, 46.058817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.03, "volume": 1225345, "typical_volume": 1431311.0, "trend": 46.591667, "fair_value": 40.94291, "relative_strength": -8.797531, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.187239, "energy": 15.932825, "activity_lines": [ 45.661333, 45.471455, 45.682857, 46.022602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.23, "volume": 995611, "typical_volume": 1397764.55, "trend": 46.561333, "fair_value": 41.010807, "relative_strength": -12.513313, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.60237, "energy": 14.234487, "activity_lines": [ 45.876667, 45.629091, 45.73219, 45.999269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }