{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d594c75e-f532-47aa-a647-bc0c5e2e9752", "symbol": "XDEB", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.925, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.665, "architecture_energy": 74.132, "architecture_maturity": 13.426, "architecture_confidence": 67.285, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.14, "rotation_up": 79.41, "upward_expansion": 92.79, "deceleration": 40.04, "rotation_down": 10.6, "downward_expansion": 14.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3813.866667, 3784.636364, 3745.990476, 3734.063441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 3878.0, "trend_reference": 3718.733333, "distance_from_trend": 0.042828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3502.888719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.923506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048959, "excess_performance": -0.002277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042828, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00796, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06011, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040514, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.248462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52188, "relative_activity": 1.099499, "balance": 3.248462, "dry_up": 0.812252, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017423, "annualized_volatility": 0.092262, "from_high_reference": -0.20932, "from_low_reference": 0.087798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3718.733333, "fair_value_reference": 3502.888719, "structural_low": 3570.850098, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.007238, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.006146, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.045661, "worst_return": -0.038605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005326, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.005056, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.063278, "worst_return": -0.050008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029944, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.035277, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.098344, "worst_return": -0.024236, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.930365, "energy": 62.673446, "activity_lines": [ 3767.533333, 3749.163636, 3721.566667, 3717.474194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3797.0, "volume": 54872, "typical_volume": 46362.3, "trend": 3711.8, "fair_value": 3497.523334, "relative_strength": -5.848521, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.105516, "energy": 54.998498, "activity_lines": [ 3778.866667, 3760.172727, 3729.969048, 3723.34086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3878.0, "volume": 52188, "typical_volume": 47465.25, "trend": 3718.733333, "fair_value": 3502.888719, "relative_strength": -3.923506, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.665392, "energy": 74.132307, "activity_lines": [ 3813.866667, 3784.636364, 3745.990476, 3734.063441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }