{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d596aaeb-fe2e-4c71-86e8-713d3e3336d9", "symbol": "LEDS", "name": "SemiLEDS Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.599, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.418, "architecture_energy": 45.648, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.11, "rotation_up": 53.34, "upward_expansion": 74.48, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 17.09, "downward_expansion": 12.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.244667, 2.091727, 2.008667, 1.882802 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 1.76796, "distance_from_trend": 0.250028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.717258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286935, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.475223, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.38558, "excess_performance": 0.198126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.250028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095559, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014752, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.38558, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.957878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272388, "relative_activity": 0.090746, "balance": 19.957878, "dry_up": 4.778439, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.286123, "annualized_volatility": 1.239649, "from_high_reference": -0.389503, "from_low_reference": 1.188119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.76796, "fair_value_reference": 1.717258, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028761, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018424, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.361446, "worst_return": -0.326389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.261584, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.333357, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.470199, "worst_return": -0.409722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.376494, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.481288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099338, "worst_return": -0.66821, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107028, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037234, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.352332, "energy": 16.785088, "activity_lines": [ 1.715, 1.870364, 1.772796, 1.722197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.63, "volume": 94067, "typical_volume": 144859.85, "trend": 1.693377, "fair_value": 1.717643, "relative_strength": -25.052021, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.509048, "energy": 12.339456, "activity_lines": [ 1.668667, 1.813909, 1.769716, 1.717722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.01, "volume": 55006074, "typical_volume": 2892792.8, "trend": 1.733627, "fair_value": 1.72181, "relative_strength": 43.796462, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.907059, "energy": 31.781544, "activity_lines": [ 2.096333, 2.011455, 1.897827, 1.802665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.15, "volume": 1406372, "typical_volume": 2960901.9, "trend": 1.748627, "fair_value": 1.719822, "relative_strength": 4.528147, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.369708, "energy": 32.695326, "activity_lines": [ 2.163333, 2.035727, 1.936794, 1.829528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.13, "volume": 688161, "typical_volume": 2993823.35, "trend": 1.765627, "fair_value": 1.718284, "relative_strength": 2.931966, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.430199, "energy": 39.722249, "activity_lines": [ 2.21, 2.054, 1.970524, 1.854132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 272388, "typical_volume": 3001660.1, "trend": 1.76796, "fair_value": 1.717258, "relative_strength": 1.475223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.418275, "energy": 45.647597, "activity_lines": [ 2.244667, 2.091727, 2.008667, 1.882802 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }