{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d596c554-154e-491e-baeb-310a9fb83aac", "symbol": "EARN", "name": "EARNZ plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.682, "architecture_energy": 70.753, "architecture_maturity": 44.206, "architecture_confidence": 89.988, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 15.51, "deceleration": 41.86, "rotation_down": 62.89, "downward_expansion": 91.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0321, 0.033273, 0.03741, 0.040747 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0315, "trend_reference": 0.044758, "distance_from_trend": -0.29622, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.107615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.707291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.253574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.452174, "excess_performance": -0.503409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.29622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.707291, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072707, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.452174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.829353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251037, "relative_activity": 0.34535, "balance": 1.829353, "dry_up": 2.484268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140781, "annualized_volatility": 0.286596, "from_high_reference": -0.540146, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.044758, "fair_value_reference": 0.107615, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.042873, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048428, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 1.090909, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.102941, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.141625, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.627451, "worst_return": -0.628571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.135294, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.173007, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.161616, "worst_return": -0.817204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -36.509833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.751457, "energy": 84.332552, "activity_lines": [ 0.032633, 0.034927, 0.039371, 0.042507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0325, "volume": 601011, "typical_volume": 732433.5, "trend": 0.045392, "fair_value": 0.113503, "relative_strength": -36.706629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.752305, "energy": 77.641437, "activity_lines": [ 0.0324, 0.0341, 0.03839, 0.041643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 251037, "typical_volume": 726906.65, "trend": 0.044758, "fair_value": 0.107615, "relative_strength": -38.253574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.68177, "energy": 70.753087, "activity_lines": [ 0.0321, 0.033273, 0.03741, 0.040747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }