{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d59c1225-61e1-4ebd-a9f9-25d5e42cbc01", "symbol": "DBO", "name": "INVESCO DB MULTI-SECTOR COMM TR OIL FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.935, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.912, "architecture_energy": 30.733, "architecture_maturity": 41.862, "architecture_confidence": 56.745, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.0, "rotation_up": 60.73, "upward_expansion": 67.21, "deceleration": 64.89, "rotation_down": 12.88, "downward_expansion": 12.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.762, 19.985818, 20.284, 19.929419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.59, "trend_reference": 18.766, "distance_from_trend": 0.043909, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.525325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.730793, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.44469, "excess_performance": 0.319065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043909, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087308, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.44469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.538644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2513192, "relative_activity": 0.574586, "balance": 0.538644, "dry_up": 0.601301, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104676, "annualized_volatility": 0.550092, "from_high_reference": -0.183069, "from_low_reference": 0.681647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.766, "fair_value_reference": 14.525325, "structural_low": 13.27, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03653, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.051296, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.160035, "worst_return": -0.084349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012422, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469487, "worst_return": -0.10493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073414, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.157056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.181822, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074945, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.667894, "energy": 23.826166, "activity_lines": [ 20.140667, 19.786364, 20.26019, 19.647226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.53, "volume": 2832805, "typical_volume": 4723117.0, "trend": 18.529, "fair_value": 14.492416, "relative_strength": 24.197593, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.365996, "energy": 33.830579, "activity_lines": [ 20.909333, 20.053636, 20.36681, 19.860968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.59, "volume": 2513192, "typical_volume": 4373917.7, "trend": 18.766, "fair_value": 14.525325, "relative_strength": 8.730793, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.912339, "energy": 30.733031, "activity_lines": [ 20.762, 19.985818, 20.284, 19.929419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }