{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5a67d03-a22a-4270-8d81-697a67af1423", "symbol": "CBUS", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Liquid Corp UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.494, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.266, "architecture_energy": 25.129, "architecture_maturity": 57.252, "architecture_confidence": 71.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.05, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 50.89, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 46.21, "downward_expansion": 28.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.696933, 12.779782, 12.752762, 12.723452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.642, "trend_reference": 12.681876, "distance_from_trend": -0.003144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.490894, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.640882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010725, "excess_performance": -0.160167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005236, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000656, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010725, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.375586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9614, "relative_activity": 1.109406, "balance": 2.375586, "dry_up": 0.786271, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008811, "annualized_volatility": 0.048002, "from_high_reference": -0.145401, "from_low_reference": 0.029099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.681876, "fair_value_reference": 12.490894, "structural_low": 12.408, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020113, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017432, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.018073, "worst_return": -0.058272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027553, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.041301, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.010652, "worst_return": -0.050659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035414, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.119336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038603, "worst_return": -0.064188, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012138, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007005, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", 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12.766105, 12.724919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.762, "volume": 10747, "typical_volume": 8454.95, "trend": 12.680346, "fair_value": 12.476646, "relative_strength": -11.447692, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.384127, "energy": 36.611917, "activity_lines": [ 12.843067, 12.850909, 12.769924, 12.730776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.608, "volume": 2783, "typical_volume": 8345.85, "trend": 12.683166, "fair_value": 12.483667, "relative_strength": -12.718804, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.786091, "energy": 20.44927, "activity_lines": [ 12.749733, 12.811891, 12.759371, 12.726108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.642, "volume": 9614, "typical_volume": 8665.9, "trend": 12.681876, "fair_value": 12.490894, "relative_strength": -14.640882, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.265821, "energy": 25.128828, "activity_lines": [ 12.696933, 12.779782, 12.752762, 12.723452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }