{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5a81bca-674a-4d38-b5a0-6e07c5db965e", "symbol": "WVAL", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Value UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.418, "architecture_energy": 56.485, "architecture_maturity": 51.717, "architecture_confidence": 65.779, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 46.81, "upward_expansion": 77.51, "deceleration": 73.41, "rotation_down": 28.74, "downward_expansion": 8.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.262501, 49.084092, 48.550596, 47.54793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.415001, "trend_reference": 46.334417, "distance_from_trend": 0.088068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.089792, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436743, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.369569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123579, "excess_performance": 0.072344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020631, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073696, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123579, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 32.853562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30870, "relative_activity": 1.78621, "balance": 32.853562, "dry_up": 0.829341, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020973, "annualized_volatility": 0.147375, "from_high_reference": -0.005229, "from_low_reference": 0.378024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.334417, "fair_value_reference": 35.089792, "structural_low": 41.275002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026992, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007877, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086568, "worst_return": -0.018561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.120771, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.043997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164188, "worst_return": -0.01908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121647, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089119, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.222284, "worst_return": 0.031854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.257838, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.182046, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.387655, "worst_return": 0.083852, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038532, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003921, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062211, "active": false }, { "regime": 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45.64, "fair_value": 34.670913, "relative_strength": 6.104029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.998897, "energy": 45.087936, "activity_lines": [ 48.632167, 48.849909, 47.821214, 46.872882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.712502, "volume": 16867, "typical_volume": 18047.15, "trend": 45.863667, "fair_value": 34.803734, "relative_strength": 5.92239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.905008, "energy": 39.492251, "activity_lines": [ 48.609834, 48.830773, 48.031595, 47.071108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.927502, "volume": 6992, "typical_volume": 16889.5, "trend": 46.088084, "fair_value": 34.941346, "relative_strength": 4.803811, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.982651, "energy": 38.720265, "activity_lines": [ 48.686335, 48.82441, 48.235405, 47.268774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.415001, "volume": 30870, "typical_volume": 17282.4, "trend": 46.334417, "fair_value": 35.089792, "relative_strength": 7.369569, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.417588, "energy": 56.484502, "activity_lines": [ 49.262501, 49.084092, 48.550596, 47.54793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }