{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5b461f5-721a-44cf-a565-4f7590cdad12", "symbol": "STKX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Technology UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.019, "architecture_energy": 29.555, "architecture_maturity": 70.342, "architecture_confidence": 93.847, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.86, "rotation_up": 22.64, "upward_expansion": 56.33, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 35.69, "downward_expansion": 19.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.513335, 201.964546, 200.500286, 192.424731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 203.550003, "trend_reference": 182.266333, "distance_from_trend": 0.116772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.175064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431686, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.615751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2852, "excess_performance": 0.114308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.431686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032635, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066158, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.325985, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3932, "relative_activity": 0.868595, "balance": 4.325985, "dry_up": 0.727327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051199, "annualized_volatility": 0.252584, "from_high_reference": -0.074562, "from_low_reference": 0.660548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 182.266333, "fair_value_reference": 142.175064, "structural_low": 149.259995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035226, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01515, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.071603, "worst_return": -0.12394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023553, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121463, "worst_return": -0.102501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015014, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.419036, "worst_return": -0.184211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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176.242666, "fair_value": 139.996667, "relative_strength": 11.024825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.210094, "energy": 61.639545, "activity_lines": [ 210.406665, 210.218908, 197.435618, 187.958881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 192.759995, "volume": 3428, "typical_volume": 5482.0, "trend": 177.835333, "fair_value": 140.519615, "relative_strength": 5.561024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.310925, "energy": 38.722181, "activity_lines": [ 203.81333, 207.603271, 198.11838, 189.024515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 195.100006, "volume": 1763, "typical_volume": 5321.2, "trend": 179.474, "fair_value": 141.037308, "relative_strength": 6.656267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.164273, "energy": 30.332108, "activity_lines": [ 199.672667, 205.329818, 198.891904, 190.138365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 192.220001, "volume": 4047, "typical_volume": 5183.0, "trend": 180.857333, "fair_value": 141.565513, "relative_strength": 4.04124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.59724, "energy": 31.603061, "activity_lines": [ 196.165334, 202.483273, 199.230762, 190.960688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 203.550003, "volume": 3932, "typical_volume": 4526.85, "trend": 182.266333, "fair_value": 142.175064, "relative_strength": 6.615751, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.019256, "energy": 29.554728, "activity_lines": [ 197.513335, 201.964546, 200.500286, 192.424731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }