{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5b7b473-a90e-49d8-b5cb-808e8d735d27", "symbol": "N1RG34", "name": "NRG Energy, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.017, "architecture_energy": 67.886, "architecture_maturity": 53.194, "architecture_confidence": 84.349, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.88, "rotation_up": 13.67, "upward_expansion": 12.16, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 68.02, "downward_expansion": 83.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.125663, 67.157043, 68.805186, 71.627163 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.948002, "trend_reference": 75.237158, "distance_from_trend": -0.189922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.169863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.310303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.226234, "excess_performance": -0.169185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079311, "read": "Falling" 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59.206001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.027214, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.010885, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.11973, "worst_return": -0.112765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025824, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.141024, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.137088, "worst_return": -0.254348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06915, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08737, "worst_return": 0.05093, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.679954, "activity_lines": [ 69.51994, 69.370516, 70.685546, 73.37811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.390999, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 3513.5, "trend": 75.863538, "fair_value": 56.891018, "relative_strength": -26.309351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.252732, "energy": 47.281473, "activity_lines": [ 67.635355, 68.538262, 69.869268, 72.589456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.948002, "volume": 2380, "typical_volume": 3612.5, "trend": 75.237158, "fair_value": 57.169863, "relative_strength": -27.310303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.017149, "energy": 67.885585, "activity_lines": [ 65.125663, 67.157043, 68.805186, 71.627163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }