{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5b848d5-e0bf-431d-bed5-72698cadb053", "symbol": "AWRE", "name": "Aware Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.801, "architecture_energy": 52.988, "architecture_maturity": 12.576, "architecture_confidence": 86.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.15, "rotation_up": 11.05, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 39.45, "rotation_down": 58.99, "downward_expansion": 78.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.202, 1.255091, 1.292333, 1.327699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.27, "trend_reference": 1.4225, "distance_from_trend": -0.107206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.767235, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.233545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.294444, "excess_performance": -0.481898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281363, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.392335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057465, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127507, "relative_activity": 0.562008, "balance": 1.081719, "dry_up": 1.124734, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158074, "annualized_volatility": 0.733921, "from_high_reference": -0.569492, "from_low_reference": 0.245098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.4225, "fair_value_reference": 1.767235, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.017319, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.03148, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.393443, "worst_return": -0.208092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.131455, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.147907, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.116438, "worst_return": -0.254054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.102501, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.174158, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.138889, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162162, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.245989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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"close": 1.39, "volume": 113947, "typical_volume": 225852.05, "trend": 1.532167, "fair_value": 1.778742, "relative_strength": -37.629479, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.66635, "energy": 13.466381, "activity_lines": [ 1.38, 1.383091, 1.351, 1.410108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.11, "volume": 278959, "typical_volume": 233875.3, "trend": 1.5005, "fair_value": 1.775761, "relative_strength": -47.193626, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.282887, "energy": 33.206608, "activity_lines": [ 1.284, 1.336182, 1.327524, 1.382871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.09, "volume": 227800, "typical_volume": 240729.3, "trend": 1.469833, "fair_value": 1.771915, "relative_strength": -46.439796, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.021136, "energy": 51.82637, "activity_lines": [ 1.204, 1.289091, 1.304667, 1.356387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 386442, "typical_volume": 247656.4, "trend": 1.444833, "fair_value": 1.768902, "relative_strength": -40.518889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.07815, "energy": 54.45493, "activity_lines": [ 1.188, 1.265273, 1.294762, 1.338978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.27, "volume": 127507, "typical_volume": 226877.7, "trend": 1.4225, "fair_value": 1.767235, "relative_strength": -39.233545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.801483, "energy": 52.988059, "activity_lines": [ 1.202, 1.255091, 1.292333, 1.327699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }