{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5c34323-902b-45d8-a605-a2e7a28ab9f5", "symbol": "CLX", "name": "The Clorox Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.279, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.914, "architecture_energy": 8.25, "architecture_maturity": 18.231, "architecture_confidence": 72.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.0, "rotation_up": 29.16, "upward_expansion": 29.81, "deceleration": 45.22, "rotation_down": 22.65, "downward_expansion": 45.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.914667, 97.834727, 96.447296, 98.663811 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 105.15, "trend_reference": 102.620673, "distance_from_trend": 0.024647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 125.110759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.159545, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.693403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.107773, "excess_performance": -0.233397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.159545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125836, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155389, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16616220, "relative_activity": 1.267645, "balance": 0.725364, "dry_up": 1.012013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064698, "annualized_volatility": 0.345773, "from_high_reference": -0.173807, "from_low_reference": 0.24144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.620673, "fair_value_reference": 125.110759, "structural_low": 84.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.006849, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017948, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.16158, "worst_return": -0.151188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017617, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.173404, "worst_return": -0.133551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062625, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.071767, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.150983, "worst_return": -0.0643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.155351, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"close": 96.32, "volume": 14082406, "typical_volume": 12826105.5, "trend": 102.689917, "fair_value": 125.966736, "relative_strength": -17.761308, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.278301, "energy": 15.557911, "activity_lines": [ 96.7, 95.987091, 96.045354, 99.418635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.55, "volume": 9586413, "typical_volume": 12755223.05, "trend": 102.668645, "fair_value": 125.696159, "relative_strength": -17.23801, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.952572, "energy": 13.829441, "activity_lines": [ 96.318, 96.086727, 95.797316, 98.957995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.53, "volume": 12776643, "typical_volume": 12890747.5, "trend": 102.57121, "fair_value": 125.36738, "relative_strength": -17.506878, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.568427, "energy": 19.357377, "activity_lines": [ 95.946, 96.09, 95.63147, 98.497437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.15, "volume": 16616220, "typical_volume": 13107949.4, "trend": 102.620673, "fair_value": 125.110759, "relative_strength": -11.693403, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.914351, "energy": 8.250454, "activity_lines": [ 98.914667, 97.834727, 96.447296, 98.663811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }