{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5c72df2-758e-47dc-98ce-b2b00627d8ea", "symbol": "IBIO", "name": "iBio, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.915, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.731, "architecture_energy": 59.681, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.973, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.93, "rotation_up": 15.29, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 40.78, "rotation_down": 68.64, "downward_expansion": 89.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.414, 1.494727, 1.603238, 1.734645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.41, "trend_reference": 1.912333, "distance_from_trend": -0.262681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.294866, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.414625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417355, "excess_performance": -0.604809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.262681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088851, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2122037, "relative_activity": 0.480352, "balance": 0.677129, "dry_up": 0.803893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202941, "annualized_volatility": 0.7366, "from_high_reference": -0.63089, "from_low_reference": 1.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.912333, "fair_value_reference": 2.294866, "structural_low": 1.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.122293, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.114985, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 1.18898, "worst_return": -0.75725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.315882, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.26159, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.83777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.448864, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.546982, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.031944, "worst_return": -0.903809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-17.346224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.056563, "energy": 50.554499, "activity_lines": [ 1.623333, 1.680364, 1.758429, 1.883935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.38, "volume": 5242455, "typical_volume": 4651571.05, "trend": 1.991333, "fair_value": 2.475866, "relative_strength": -21.589148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.211096, "energy": 59.522489, "activity_lines": [ 1.534, 1.622545, 1.708048, 1.843204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.43, "volume": 2827981, "typical_volume": 4559172.3, "trend": 1.976, "fair_value": 2.420071, "relative_strength": -17.923192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.669513, "energy": 60.818247, "activity_lines": [ 1.482, 1.579818, 1.669286, 1.806989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 4012857, "typical_volume": 4505860.8, "trend": 1.955333, "fair_value": 2.342763, "relative_strength": -20.588468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.536703, "energy": 63.767432, "activity_lines": [ 1.437333, 1.532364, 1.633286, 1.769828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.41, "volume": 2122037, "typical_volume": 4417669.6, "trend": 1.912333, "fair_value": 2.294866, "relative_strength": -24.414625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.731113, "energy": 59.680782, "activity_lines": [ 1.414, 1.494727, 1.603238, 1.734645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }