{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5d2516d-451e-4398-b6e3-bd41dfdd1d0e", "symbol": "AMS", "name": "Amadeus IT Group, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.422, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.451, "architecture_energy": 53.455, "architecture_maturity": 10.632, "architecture_confidence": 46.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.83, "rotation_up": 59.2, "upward_expansion": 53.54, "deceleration": 30.12, "rotation_down": 25.52, "downward_expansion": 25.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.506, 52.279633, 51.641552, 51.45903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.5, "trend_reference": 51.899944, "distance_from_trend": 0.107901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.129408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.807146, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1028, "excess_performance": -0.021631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123943, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.917091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3459948, "relative_activity": 0.918073, "balance": 0.917091, "dry_up": 1.042404, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045962, "annualized_volatility": 0.337858, "from_high_reference": -0.208702, "from_low_reference": 0.244319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.899944, "fair_value_reference": 61.129408, "structural_low": 46.209999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002813, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023525, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.086642, "worst_return": -0.075415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027562, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124549, "worst_return": -0.119933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057726, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042745, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.209068, "worst_return": 0.038878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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49.73, "volume": 3621823, "typical_volume": 4098109.75, "trend": 52.395042, "fair_value": 61.189182, "relative_strength": -26.673968, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.949608, "energy": 27.32327, "activity_lines": [ 50.262602, 50.641051, 50.686869, 51.019737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.82, "volume": 4180517, "typical_volume": 4000907.95, "trend": 52.115908, "fair_value": 61.149577, "relative_strength": -20.484497, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.45191, "energy": 1.518596, "activity_lines": [ 51.361333, 51.156502, 50.992782, 51.11167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.5, "volume": 3459948, "typical_volume": 3768707.8, "trend": 51.899944, "fair_value": 61.129408, "relative_strength": -15.807146, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.450545, "energy": 53.454515, "activity_lines": [ 53.506, 52.279633, 51.641552, 51.45903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }